A look at important themes on the horizon (April 14 - April 18).

A Treasury roller-coaster, record high in gold, pronounced dollar weakness, and the S&P's best week in years capped a remarkable stretch replete with volatility. Tit-for-tat tariff announcements may have run their course but could bring US-China trade to a standstill. A preliminary University of Michigan survey for April showed consumer sentiment plummeting further in the US as inflation expectations continued their ascent. Bank earnings outperformance aided by trading revenu

Momentum from Wednesday's reciprocal tariff pause proved short-lived after overnight equity strength dissipated on Thursday, when the reality of a US-China trade war and shaken world order appeared to set in. The S&P 500 closed down 3.5%, WTI fell below $60bbl, gold hovered near record highs, and Treasury weakness continued notwithstanding softer-than-expected inflation data. While global partners sought to reduce US financial and diplomatic exposure, the House adopted the Se

An about-face on so-called reciprocal tariffs precipitated a stunning turnaround in equity indices on Wednesday, though further trade war escalation vis-a-vis China and uncertainty about forthcoming bilateral negotiations continued to weigh on the outlook. The S&P 500 closed 9.5% higher even as oil's decline continued. Treasuries rallied through auction supply after another spike in yields had elicited reservations from President Trump himself and prompted broader concern abo

An overnight risk-asset rally that had pushed European stock indices ~2.5% higher gave way to the collective realization that no reprieve would be forthcoming for US "reciprocal" tariffs, which are now in effect. The latter helped to engineer a substantial S&P 500 reversal into the red on Tuesday. An additional 50 percentage points to China's penalty rate (now 104%) augured an entrenched trade war as a backlog of negotiation requests meant that trade talks seeking tariff repr

Formidable equity losses in Asia extended into European weakness to establish a risk-off tone overnight, but US stocks navigated a turbulent session on Monday to pare losses and grant a temporary reprieve from last week's tariff-induced slide. Though escalating rhetoric between the US and China showed no signs of abatement, the prospect that sticker shock might soon give way to negotiated agreements eased market fears. Demand risks weighed on commodities, which saw oil trade

A look at important themes on the horizon (April 7 - April 11).

Equity indices' two-day plunge marked their worst performance since COVID and the 2008 financial crisis. Friday's losses neared 6% in the S&P 500 (where all 11 sectors retreated) as collateral calls exacerbated risk asset sales in light of trade war escalation and attendant stagflation fears. Given resilient employment data for March, the market rout appeared unlikely to compel near-term monetary easing on account of inflation concerns amplified by Fed Chair Powell. Safe have

Liberation gave way to consternation as the announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs brought seas of red in global equities on Thursday. Major US stock indices posted their largest single-day losses since 2020 with dramatic selloffs across sectors as stunned investors weighed the repercussions of a new and uncertain regime for global trade. Amid widespread condemnation, world leaders openly contemplated passive and active responses ranging from a wait-and-see approach to retaliat