Informational commentary - NOT advice or a recommendation of any kind. Without suitable progress on inflation, the Federal Reserve agreed there was work to do. By Edward von der Schmidt 2026-09-17 | Summary | Statement | Summary of Economic Projections | Prepared Remarks | Press Conference | Takeaways | Disclaimers Summary The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hike policy rates by 25 basis points (to 3.75-4.00%) to demonstrate its commitment to ensurin

Probable is not a guarantee.

Commentary - NOT advice or a recommendation. See Disclaimers and Terms.

Defying out-of-consensus calls for a surprise rate increase at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to hold off on moving for now. However, three dissents in favor of lifting policy rates (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) offered evidence of a "good family fight". That there was "nothing inertial" about the Fed's discussions, policy, or strategy may signal momentum toward a possible September rate hike (or even balance sheet tightening), notwithstanding Chair W

Kevin Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as Chair brought an expected policy hold, tough inflation rhetoric, little forward guidance, and a pledge to revisit the Fed's lens and operations.

The Fed will remain on hold until they are confident that tariff inflation has passed through and they have had time to assess the uncertain evolution of war in the Middle East. With the broader economy still relatively solid and unemployment steady, the need for greater progress on inflation and clarity on the outlook will push any rate cuts out until December at the earliest, barring any unforeseen deterioration in labor markets. Conversely, an unexpected de-anchoring of in

The Federal Reserve signaled that policy will remain in a holding pattern. Risks to employment and inflation appear to have lessened and the economic outlook has improved.

The Federal Reserve signaled that policy will remain in a holding pattern. Risks to employment and inflation appear to have lessened and the economic outlook has improved. A sharp deceleration in prices or rapid deterioration in labor markets could change the Fed's thinking and compel lowering rates sooner, but the FOMC believe they are "well-positioned" to consider the "extent and timing" of future policy adjustments. Given concerns surrounding the central bank's independenc

Transcript Hi everyone. I just posted a macro update about the December Fed meeting and I wanted to speak to a few key points. The first is that the Fed is signaling a pause. It does not intend to cut rates again in January. The statement stressed that they are “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to policy, which means that they are not planning another move at this time. Obviously, the narrative can change in a hurry as data comes in. Secondly, weak

The Fed signaled that the Committee will likely hold off on further rate cuts in January as they wait for more information to assess the state and trajectory of the US economy. A lot can change in the weeks and months ahead - policy is not predetermined.

Ideas to think about going into the decision and press conference.

Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve and the aftermath of the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Committee appears most likely to cut rates modestly (as markets and forecasters generally expect) and to signal a careful adjustment period without committing to a preset course, thus preserving the flexibility to pause or accelerate. That said, a September hold or even a larger initial cut are not entirely off the table. The Fed will balance co