https://vimeo.com/1154944364/b7350ef1e9?fl=ip&fe=ec Transcript Hi everyone. I just posted a macro update about the December Fed meeting and I wanted to speak to a few key points. The first is that the Fed is signaling a pause. It does not intend to cut rates again in January. The statement stressed that they are “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to policy, which means that they are not planning another move at this time. Obviously, the narrative ca

The Fed signaled that the Committee will likely hold off on further rate cuts in January as they wait for more information to assess the state and trajectory of the US economy. A lot can change in the weeks and months ahead - policy is not predetermined. 21 DEC 2025 EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT | Key Takeaways | FOMC Statement | Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) | Prepared Remarks | Press Conference Key Takeaways The Fed intends to pause its rate adjustments until it has a bett

Ideas to think about going into the decision and press conference. 17 SEP 2025 EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT Cut and What? The Federal Open Market Committee will set a new course for monetary policy today in Washington. Chair Powell will open day two of the September FOMC with a proposal and lead a policy discussion among participants - the Governors and regional Bank Presidents of the Federal Reserve System. After Tuesday's staff and manager presentations, scenario analysis, and a

Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve and the aftermath of the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Committee appears most likely to cut rates modestly (as markets and forecasters generally expect) and to signal a careful adjustment period without committing to a preset course, thus preserving the flexibility to pause or accelerate. That said, a September hold or even a larger initial cut are not entirely off the table. The Fed will balance co

Without committing to a preset course, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will consider adjusting policy at the September meeting after holding in July. Whether a majority will choose to ease and lower rates will depend on participants' views of labor markets and the inflation outlook at that time. The Fed has characterized employment as at or near maximum and inflation as somewhat above target, which together have called for a modestly restrictive stance (i.e., above-neutr

The Federal Reserve's holding pattern appears set to continue indefinitely - or at least through the Summer. Perceptions of heightened outlook risks and deteriorating sentiment may or may not portend stagflation, but present circumstances are not yet so grave and pivotal facts may change. The economy's resilience has afforded the Fed time to await clearer indications out of Washington - particularly on tariffs - in order to assess implications for employment and inflation. Su

Next to the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference, the FOMC minutes that follow three weeks after the meeting are the best and most detailed insight you will get into the Fed's deliberations until transcripts are released in five years. Returning to the March 18-19 minutes (published April 9), the discussions emphasized elevated uncertainty and outlook risks on account of policy unknowns. Nevertheless, Fed staff and officials were aware of growth concerns complementing hig

Few changes to the Federal Reserve's policy statement and median rate projections masked an important shift. With further progress on inflation delayed and considerable outlook uncertainty, the Fed is waiting to react to whatever conditions arise from the new administration's policies in whichever manner is appropriate. Both are undetermined and achieving clarity will take time. The Fed is well-aware of downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation but eschewed devia

Sustained risk-asset weakness and recession fears may have spurred hopes for a helping hand from the Fed, but the central bank is likely to disappoint those looking for any commitment to near-term easing. Notwithstanding the possibillty of stagnant growth and labor market disruption, above-target inflation has persisted and threatens another march higher as tariffs enter the fray. Federal Reserve officials have continued to emphasize their intention to remain patient on the s