Points | FOMC - Degrees of Freedom (July 2025)
- Aug 3, 2025
- 20 min read
Without committing to a preset course, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will consider adjusting policy at the September meeting after holding in July. Whether a majority will choose to ease and lower rates will depend on participants' views of labor markets and the inflation outlook at that time. The Fed has characterized employment as at or near maximum and inflation as somewhat above target, which together have called for a modestly restrictive stance (i.e., above-neutral rates). Labor market deterioration or meaningful disinflation could spur a more balanced if not accommodative posture to support the real economy. Accelerating inflation or more persistent trade concerns in the absence of realized employment weakness could convince the Committee to bide their time and reassess in October. Distinct from their recent holding pattern, however, the FOMC will be prepared to adjust - as appears more likely than not in September. Weighing tariff clarity and economic resilience, they may also choose to wait a bit longer instead. A rate cut is very possible but not at all guaranteed and will depend on the perceived balance of risks.