Recap | 26 December 2025

We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays).

Your feedback is very welcome!

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

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Headlines

Ukraine Peace Proposal:

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will meet with President Trump in Florida on Sunday to discuss key parameters of a 20-point peace proposal to end the war with Russia.

The talks may cover how to handle de facto concessions of territory, foreign security guarantees, management of Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, and future economic cooperation.

Amid a flurry of conversations with European leaders, Zelensky has floated the possibility of a demilitarized, free economic zone in heavily-fortified Donetsk, a region that Russia has demanded in its entirety. Any territorial concessions are prohibited by Ukrainian law and would require a referendum as well as a temporary ceasefire in order to hold a vote.

Russian officials have refrained from commenting on the proposal specifically but have acknowledged a potential 'turning point' in negotiations. Ukrainian troop levels and the presence of NATO forces post-war remain major points of contention.

• AP: "Trump-Zelensky talks will address security guarantees and reconstruction, Ukraine leader says"

• Reuters: "Russian drones, missiles pound Ukraine before Zelensky-Trump meeting"

• Bloomberg: "Zelenskiy, Trump Set to Meet as Russia Questions Peace Plan"

• WSJ: "Zelensky to Meet Trump on Closing Gaps in Peace Deal"

• See Also: Politico, Interfax, TASS

China Sanctions US Defense Entities:

China announced sanctions on a number of US defense companies and executives in response to recently-announced US arms sales to Taiwan.

A Ministry of Foreign Affairs official stated, "We stress once again that the Taiwan question is at the very core of China's core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations" (AP). The US Department of State objected to the sanctions, which also followed FCC restrictions on drone imports into the US.

Comment: Under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, the United States is obligated to assist Taiwan in promoting its self-defense. The direct question of the island's sovereignty has been avoided under a long-standing policy of 'strategic ambiguity'. Taiwan is responsible for the vast majority of the world's chip fabrication.

• AP: "China sanctions 20 US defense companies and 10 executives over massive arms sales to Taiwan"

• Reuters: "China hits US defence firms with sanctions over arms sales to Taiwan"

US Targets IS in Nigeria

Coordinating with Nigeria, the US struck targets affiliated with Islamic State on Thursday. The attacks were launched from the Gulf of Guinea against fighters from the Sahel in the state of Sokoto. Nigerian officials have suggested that more strikes are forthcoming to address persistent conflicts in the country's northwest.

• AP: "US launches strikes against Islamic State group in Nigeria after attacks target Christians"

• Reuters: "US-backed airstrikes in Nigeria hit two ISIS-linked camps, government says"

• WaPo: "With airstrike in Nigeria, Trump inserts U.S. into long-running turmoil"

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Markets & Economies

Record Precious Metals Prices:

Gold ($4540/oz), silver ($77/oz), and platinum ($2400/oz) established new trading highs. Media reports have attributed the rallies to geopolitical tensions, US dollar depreciation, central bank and ETF purchases, and collateral scarcity.

• Bloomberg: "Gold and Silver Smash Records Again as Rally Gathers Momentum"

• Reuters: "Wall Street closes near record highs; precious metals rise"

China Industrial Profits:

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial profits fell 13.1% year-over-year (y/y) in November, as exports failed to offset tepid domestic demand and wholesale deflation. Still, the decline was less than Bloomberg forecasts.

• Bloomberg: "China Industrial Profits Decline in November as Demand Cools"

• Reuters: "China's industrial profits tumble at fastest pace in over a year"

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Around the World

Thailand-Cambodia:

Defense ministers from Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire agreement after border clashes flared earlier this month to disturb a peace brokered by Malaysia in July. The accord will end further troop movements and airspace violations, among other items (AP). The peace will be monitored by a team from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

• Reuters: "Thailand and Cambodia sign truce other halt fierce border conflict"

• AP: "Thailand and Cambodia sign new ceasefire agreement to end border fighting"

Yemen:

Strikes targeted the Southern Transitional Council after Saudi Arabia warned the UAE-backed separatists to withdraw from their shared border.

OPEC partners, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are vying for greater geopolitical influence and have supported competing groups in both Yemen and Sudan.

• AP: "Yemen separatists accuse Saudi Arabia of launching airstrikes against their forces"

• WSJ: "Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Militia Backed by Rival Gulf Power U.A.E."

Somaliland:

Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent sovereign, with the latter slated to join the Abraham Accords. The announcement elicited pushback from Somalia, Egypt, Turkey, Djibouti, and the African Union. The (disputed) Republic of Somaliland occupies key territory adjacent to the Gulf of Aden.

• Reuters: "Israel becomes first country to formally recognise Somaliland as independent state"