Recap | 9 January 2026

• Iranian protests draw government defiance, crackdown

• Russia uses hypersonic missile in Ukraine

• US pushes for oil investment in Venezuela amid uncertainty, quarantine

• White House reiterates Greenland goal

• Tepid job growth highlights precarious labor market

• MBS purchases ordered in bid to lower borrowing rates

• Stocks defy geopolitical risks to climb to new records, oil rallies

• No tariff ruling from Supreme Court

• EU moves forward on Mercosur trade agreement

• India and Australia to join G7 conference on rare earths

• Joint naval drills in South Africa

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

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Headlines

Iranian protests draw government defiance, crackdown:

Nationwide protests in Iran initially spurred by a cost-of-living crisis intensified amid calls for regime change. Growing dissent prompted an internet and telecommunications blackout as arrests mounted and the death toll climbed.

Supreme Leader Khamenei struck a defiant tone in blaming outside agitators for the unrest and warned against dissent. President Trump indicated that further violence against demonstrators could be met with a US response - to the chagrin of Iranian leadership.

AP:

• Internet and phones cut in Iran as protesters heed exiled prince's call for mass demonstration (1/8)

• Iran's supreme leader signals upcoming crackdown on protesters 'ruining their own streets' for Trump

Reuters:

• Iran's rulers face legitimacy crisis amid spreading unrest

• Amid mass Iran protests, Trump takes cautious approach

• New Trump warning as Iran cuts internet with protests across country

Bloomberg:

• Iran's Growing Unrest Risks Deepening Crisis for Islamic Regime

• Iran Warns Protesters of Death Penalty as Crackdown Grows

WSJ:

• Iranians Are Rallying Around the Son of the Former Shah as Protests Swell

• Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Won't Bow Down to Protests or Trump

Russia uses hypersonic missile in Ukraine:

Russia deployed its Oreshnik hypersonic missile on Thursday, striking a target in western Ukraine near NATO's border in what many analysts considered a warning to the West. Banned by treaty until 2019, the intermediate-range ballistic missile is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and cannot be intercepted by conventional systems.

Russia used the alleged drone attack on a presidential residence as a pretext for the strike.

Separately, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy floated a free trade agreement with the US as an opportunity to jump-start post-war growth.

AP:

• Russia uses its new ballistic missile in a major attack on Ukraine and a warning to West

Reuters:

• Russia fires hypersonic missile at target in Ukraine near NATO border

• Putin sends warning to Ukraine and West with weapon not used since 2024

Bloomberg:

• Russia Strikes Western Ukraine With Rare Oreshnik Missile

• Russia's Attack With Oreshnik Missile Meant to Intimidate

• Exclusive: Zelenskiy Says Trump Should Make Free-Trade Deal With Ukraine

US pushes for oil investment in Venezuela amid uncertainty, quarantine:

Meeting at the White House, oil majors expressed reservations about investing in Venezuela given past nationalizations, security concerns, and a lack of institutional safeguards.

The decision by Venezuela's interim government to release a small number of political prisoners purportedly warded off another US military incursion as officials explored a reset of diplomatic relations.

Meanwhile, the US intercepted a fifth oil tanker under its embargo of Venezuelan crude shipments.

AP:

• Trump promises oil executives 'total safety' if they invest in Venezuela after Maduro ouster

• US intercepts fifth sanctioned tanker as it exerts control over Venezuelan oil distribution

• US and Venezuela take first steps toward restoring relations after Maduro's ouster

Reuters:

• Trump urges US oil giants to repair Venezuela's 'rotting' energy industry

• US seizes Olina tanker in Caribbean, fifth vessel taken in Venezuela blockade

• Venezuela looks to rebuild diplomatic ties with US

Bloomberg:

• Exxon Calls Venezuela 'Uninvestable' as Trump Pushes Oil Plan

• Venezuela Eyes Closer US Ties While Denouncing Maduro's Fall

• Trump Cancels Second Attack on Venezuela, Cites Cooperation

WSJ:

• Trump Presses Oil Executives to Invest in Venezuela - but Gets Lukewarm Reception

• U.S. Forces Seize Fifth Tanker in Campaign to Track Down Venezuelan Oil

White House reiterates Greenland goal:

President Trump insisted that a US acquisition of Greenland remained a critical national security matter, emphasizing the naval threat posed by Russia and China.

At the same time, administration officials reportedly explored mechanisms to purchase the mineral-rich and strategically-located island or to even compensate Greenlanders directly.

AP:

• Denmark, Greenland envoys met with White House officials over Trump's call for a 'takeover' (1/8)

• Trump: US will do 'something on Greenland, whether they like it or not'

• Italy's Meloni rules out US military move on Greenland and urges stronger NATO role in Arctic

Reuters:

• Trump says US needs to own Greenland to deter Russia, China

• Exclusive: Trump administration mulls payments to sway Greenlanders to join US (1/8)

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says He'll Get Deal on Greenland, 'Easy Way' or 'Hard Way'

• No Amount of Money Can Buy Greenland, Lawmakers Tell Trump

• Trump's Greenland Grab Triggers Incredulity Then Rattles Europe

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Markets & Economies

Tepid job growth highlights precarious labor market:

Payrolls figures for December underwhelmed estimates at 50,000 with upward revisions to job losses in prior months. A downtick in the unemployment rate (to 4.4%) belied concentrated job gains and an otherwise stagnant hiring environment.

Comment: The Federal Reserve is most likely to hold rates later this month, barring a major inflation surprise in forthcoming data.

AP:

• Sluggish hiring closes out a frustrating year for job seekers though unemployment slips to 4.4%

Reuters:

• US job growth stuck at stall speed in December; unemployment rate dips to 4.4%

Bloomberg:

• US Payrolls Rise a Below-Forecast 50,000, Unemployment Lower

WSJ:

• Job Gains Cooled in December, Capping Year of Weak Hiring

MBS purchases ordered in bid to lower borrowing rates:

President Trump directed the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to purchase $200bn face value of mortgage-backed securities via the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC or Freddie Mac).

Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that the purchases were intended to offset the roll-off from Federal Reserve tapering as the administration looked for ways to address housing affordability concerns.

Insofar as the purchases are intended to influence secondary market rates to lower borrowing costs, the White House is venturing into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy domain.

Comment: In theory, buying mortgages this way can indirectly lower marketable rates offered to primary borrowers.

Reuters:

• Housing-linked stocks surge on Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond-buy order

• Bessent: Goal of MBS buys is to match Fed run-off

• Two Fed officials say key to fixing US housing more about supply than financing

Bloomberg:

• Trump's $200 Billion MBS Order Asserts New Power Over Markets

Stocks defy geopolitical risks to climb to new records, oil rallies:

Major US equity indices climbed to new records on Friday as jobs data tempered economic fears amid improving growth forecasts and consumer confidence as well as record household wealth.

Heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East bolstered oil trading.

AP:

• Wall Street rises to records after the unemployment rate improves

Reuters:

• Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus

• S&P 500 notches record high close driven by Broadcom, other chipmakers

• US household wealth hit record in third quarter 2025, Fed data shows

• US consumer sentiment perks up in early January

Bloomberg:

• Oil Traders Face New Iran Risks Days After Venezuela Crisis

• Wall Street's Risk-On Fever Shows No Signs of Abating in New Year

No tariff ruling from Supreme Court:

The Supreme Court noted that it will announce its next slate of decisions on January 14. There was no indication as to whether a ruling on the administration's use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact tariffs will be included given expectations that a decision would have been made Friday.

Reuters:

• Bessent says US Treasury can easily cover any tariff refunds

• Supreme Court plans rulings for January 14 as Trump's tariffs remain undecided

Bloomberg:

• Supreme Court Sets Wednesday for Next Opinions Amid Tariff Watch

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Around the World

EU moves forward on Mercosur trade agreement:

A quarter-century in the making, EU leaders approved a free trade agreement with major trading partners in South America (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) despite pushback from local farming interests. The deal is expected to face resistance ahead of a vote by the European Parliament.

AP:

• Italy backs historic EU-Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of negotiations

Reuters:

• EU states back record South America trade accord after 25 years

India and Australia to join G7 conference on rare earths:

Treasury Secretary Bessent invited US allies India and Australia to join a G7 ministerial summit on Monday to discuss rare earths, supplies of which are dominated by China.

Reuters:

• Bessent says Australia, India invited to G7 meeting on critical minerals

Joint naval drills in South Africa:

China, Iran, Russia, and the UAE are participating in limited naval exercises in South Africa dubbed a "BRICS Plus" operation with other members observing.

AP:

• China, Russia and Iran join South Africa for naval drills as tensions run high

Reuters:

• China, Russia, Iran start 'BRICS Plus' naval exercises in South African waters

Bloomberg:

• Iran and Russia Join Naval Drills Off South African Coast