Recap | 11 March 2026

14 minutes ago
12 min read

| Iran's effective closure of Strait of Hormuz threatens global economy

| IEA announces historic release of oil reserves to little effect

| Middle East economies rocked by regional warfare

| Proclamations of success bely indeterminate war aims

| Oil marches higher, stocks tread lightly against bond losses

| Stale February inflation data show muted pre-war price gains

| Central banks weigh prospect of lasting oil crisis against risks to economic growth

| Cracks emerging in private credit amid markdowns and redemptions

| US announces new Section 301 investigations to make up for SCOTUS tariff setback

| Europe caught between wars in Iran and Ukraine as energy and security needs collide

| US pulls Latin America closer through military collaboration, trade ties

| Anthropic court battle, ban exemptions highlight dependence on AI used in war

| Agents blocked on Amazon as surrogate software challenges e-commerce model

| White House pushes SAVE Act; Georgia runoff ahead for House seat

Commentary - not advice.

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

| Disclaimers

Headlines

Iran's effective closure of Strait of Hormuz threatens global economy

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked for all but Iranian and Chinese vessels with no end in sight. Iran is choking off the critical throughway for Gulf crude oil and container shipments to create artificial shortages, cripple supply chains, and inflict maximum collateral economic damage. Iran is not only leveraging its control of the strait to inflict global pain but continuing to export its own oil at the same time.

Absent naval escorts, the risk of land-based attacks has already kept commercial vessels at bay. Mines and seaborne drones - which Ukraine has used to great effect against Russia - would only make passage more hazardous.

Comment: An extended closure could propel oil, gas, fertilizer, and aluminum prices even higher, not to mention the prices of downstream products dependent on components moved through the strait.

Sources:

Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint. Reopening it is a big challenge (AP)
US says it destroyed 16 minelaying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports (AP; 3/10)
Aramco sees 'catastrophic consequences' for oil markets if Hormuz strait remains blocked (Reuters; 3/10)
Iran tells world to get ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it fires on merchant ships (Reuters)
Three more vessels hit by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz, showing merchant ships remain in firing line (Reuters)
Iranian oil flows through Strait of Hormuz even as Gulf neighbors' exports shut (Reuters)
Gulf Oil Giants Deepen Cuts as Hormuz Halt Chokes Exports (Bloomberg; 3/10)
Global LNG Hunt Intensifies as Middle East War Cuts Supply (Bloomberg)
LNG Suppliers Declare Force Majeure on Contracts From Qatar (Bloomberg)
Iran's Hormuz Control Gives Country Leverage Despite Military Struggles (Bloomberg; 3/10)
Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure (WSJ)
Iran's Control of Hormuz Mean It's Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War (WSJ; 3/10)

IEA announces historic release of oil reserves to little effect

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release a third of its public strategic crude oil reserves (400 million barrels) to help address shortages. The emergency supply will be led by the US as Japan, Germany, and others looking to tap their strategic reserves.

Equivalent to a few weeks' worth of typical shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the unprecedented intervention exhibited a relatively modest impact on oil markets preoccupied with the repercussions of an extended crisis. Various countries and Europe in particular explored caps to contain spiking natural gas costs.

Sources:

Oil shock from Iran war prompts countries to open strategic reserves (AP)
IEA agrees to record release of emergency oil reserves in an effort to calm surging prices (AP)
IEA tackles Iran war oil price spikes with record stocks release plan, markets not convinced (Reuters)
EU considering gas price cap to curb surging energy costs (Reuters)
IEA to Release Record 400 Million Barrels From Oil Reserves (Bloomberg)
US to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil for IEA Relief Plan (Bloomberg)
IEA Will Launch Largest-Ever Oil Release From Global Strategic Reserves (WSJ)
U.S. Plan to Unblock Strait of Hormuz Collides With Realities of Global Insurance (WSJ)

See also:

China Has Spent Years Preparing for the Iran Oil Crisis (WSJ; 3/10)

Middle East economies rocked by regional warfare

The disruptions to energy production extended beyond the strait to refinery shutdowns and declarations of force majeure. Iranian drones have targeted critical infrastructure including Dubai International Airport and defensive capabilities such as radar installations. The attacks have paralyzed travel and have prompted warnings, evacuations, and existential concerns for neighboring countries under fire.

Sources:

Iran targets ships, Dubai airport and oil facilities as economic concerns mount (AP)
Iran targets busiest international airport as top UN body demands halt to attacks on Gulf neighbors (AP)
U.S. military tells civilians to avoid port facilities where Iranian navy operating (Reuters)
Sea drones target oil tankers in the Middle East as conflict risks widen (Reuters)
Drone strikes near Dubai airport deepen Gulf aviation chaos (Reuters)
US Military Warns of Possible Strikes on Iranian Civilian Ports (Bloomberg)
Iran's Production of Shahed Missiles Slowed Down But Not Halted (Bloomberg)
Dubai Flights Disrupted After Drone Hurts Four Near Main Airport (Bloomberg)
Two Tankers Attacked in Iraqi Waters, Oil Terminals Suspended (Bloomberg)

See also:

Tracing the US military's learning curve on fighting Iran's drones: What to know (AP)
Qatar wants to bolster security partnership with US after Iran's strikes (Reuters; 3/10)
US ignites Iran war, but Gulf Arab states pay the price, Gulf sources say (Reuters)
UN warns global aid at risk as Middle East war spreads (Reuters)

Proclamations of success bely indeterminate war aims

Notwithstanding visible initial successes, the US and Israeli endgames are unclear. President Trump has touted the efficacy of America's air campaign in neutralizing ballistic missile and other military capabilities but has stated, "we're not finished yet". Waging a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel appears more keen on regime change in Iran. Intelligence has assessed the latter to be uncertain if not unlikely.

Meanwhile, Iran seems intent upon an asymmetric war of attrition. With the new supreme leader out of the public eye, the Revolutionary Guard have escalated rhetoric and expanded the scope of their attacks.

Sources:

Trump keeps telling America he's winning in Iran. He's less clear in explaining how the war ends (AP)
Trump and Iran signal no quick end to war as tankers burn in Iraqi waters (Reuters)
War with Iran will end when Israel and US decide, Israeli foreign minister says (Reuters; 3/10)
Israeli president tells Bild: War with Iran needs 'end result', not exact timetable (Reuters; 3/10)
Heaviest day of strikes yet on Iran despite market bets that war will end soon (Reuters; 3/10)
Israel sees no certainty Iran's government will fall despite war (Reuters)
Trump on Iran: We won, but don't want to leave early (Reuters)
US and Israeli Endgames for Iran Are Diverging as War Drags On (Bloomberg; 3/10)
Trump Touts Oil Supply Moves, Vowing to 'Finish the Job' in Iran (Bloomberg)
Iran Says Truce Depends on US, Israel Pledging Not to Strike (Bloomberg)
Trump Says the Iran War Is Nearly Won but Israel Has Other Ideas (WSJ; 3/10)

See also:

Lebanon's latest conflict brings rare public backlash against Hezbollah as war flares again (AP)
Exclusive: US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources (Reuters)
Iran's new leader, still silent, was elevated by the Revolutionary Guards (Reuters; 3/10)
Iran's new supreme leader 'lightly injured' but active, Iranian official says (Reuters)
Israel pounds Beirut suburbs after Hezbollah fires volley of rockets (Reuters)

Markets & Economies

Oil marches higher, stocks tread lightly against bond losses

Oil prices resumed their climb in response to supply shock fears, bringing gasoline prices in tow. Energy shortages and geopolitical uncertainty tempered any enthusiasm for equities. Inflation risks pushed government bond yields higher.

Sources:

Stocks waver as oil prices get back to rising (AP)
Stocks dip, Treasury yields jump as oil pushes higher (Reuters)
Shares skid, oil surges again as Iran attacks Gulf shipping (Reuters)
Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan (Reuters)
Oil Advances as Middle East Disruptions Outweigh Release Plan (Bloomberg)
Stocks Churn on War Jitters as Oil Keeps Rallying: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
Bond Yields Jump as Oil Prices Rise, Middle East War Outlook Uncertain (WSJ)

See also:

US gasoline prices surpass $3.50 a gallon at the pumps (Reuters)

Stale February inflation data show muted pre-war price gains

Although February's Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) reading came in flat to January at 2.4% y/y (2.5% for core inflation), the survey period preceded the onset of the war in Iran as well as the oil and gas price surge that followed. Underlying services inflation also suggested tariff-related passthrough.

Sources:

Inflation held steady last month, but that was before the attack on Iran sent energy costs soaring (AP)
How the Iran war and surging oil prices are affecting consumers at the gas pump and beyond (AP)
Higher gasoline prices, volatile stocks, could hit both low- and high-income US consumers as war persists (Reuters; 3/10)
US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict drives up oil prices (Reuters)
US Core Inflation Slowed as Expected Before War With Iran (Bloomberg)
Exclusive: EU Warns Iran Conflict Could Push the Bloc's Inflation Above 3% (Bloomberg)
Inflation Holds Steady, but Iran War Threatens to Boost Prices (WSJ)

See also:

US existing home sales unexpectedly increase as mortgage rates decline (Reuters; 3/10)
US February budget deficit flat at $308 billion, tariff revenues not yet hit by court ruling (Reuters)
US Budget Deficit Narrows at Slower Pace After Tariff Rate Decrease (Bloomberg)
February Home Sales Rose After Mortgage Rates Eased (WSJ; 3/10)

Central banks weigh prospect of lasting oil crisis against risks to economic growth

The oil price shock has created a conundrum for monetary policy, especially if it proves lasting. Major central banks are particularly wary of a sustained period of elevated energy costs and associated ripple effects, especially those whose economies are net importers of oil and natural gas. On balance, officials have espoused more restrictive policy inclinations.

Emerging markets that otherwise may have considered easing to bolster demand now have to contend with currency depreciation exacerbating domestic inflation as safe haven currencies strengthen and the cost of imports rises.

Comment: A recessionary environment that limits firms' ability to pass on higher costs to consumers on account of weak demand could mitigate inflation pressures. However, unavoidable price increases due to higher energy input costs could instead give rise to so-called "stagflation" - the unfortunate combination of stagnant growth and high inflation - that could tie central banks' hands.

Sources:

BOJ to raise interest rates next quarter with expectations unchanged by Middle East war: Reuters poll (Reuters)
ECB policymakers acknowledge war risk, promise to keep inflation in check (Reuters)
Iran-linked energy spike shrinks emerging markets' room for rate cuts (Reuters)
Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed's Favored Inflation Gauge (Bloomberg)

Cracks emerging in private credit amid markdowns and redemptions

Private credit exposure to AI disruption (i.e. software), broader economic volatility, and poor fund performance have led to growing redemptions and greater scrutiny of portfolio holdings and valuations.

Sources:

JPMorgan marks down value of loan portfolios of some private credit groups, source says (Reuters)
KKR's publicly traded private credit fund's near-term returns pressured, CFO says (Reuters)
Private Credit Exodus Forces Caps at Cliffwater, Morgan Stanley (Bloomberg)
Private Credit Firm Ares Holds Town Hall to Reassure Staff on Market Volatility (Bloomberg)
Apollo Plans to Mark Private Credit Daily, Answering Critics (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Markdowns (Bloomberg)

See also:

JPMorgan Says Hedge Funds Hit by Worst Drawdown Since April (Bloomberg)

Around the World

US announces new Section 301 investigations to make up for SCOTUS tariff setback

The US Trade Representative (USTR) announced a host of new trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which apply to unfair trade practices. The administration intends to restore much of the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court through this mechanism, citing subsidies and labor practices as the basis for corrective tariffs.

Comment: The reintroduction of tariffs in conjunction with the war in Iran will heighten outlook uncertainty and amplify risks to the economy and inflation.

Sources:

US Launches Trade Probe Into China, EU in Trump's Tariffs Revival (Bloomberg)
Trump Targets Industrial Subsidies and Forced Labor in Tariff Probes (WSJ)

See also:

US navy aircraft transits Taiwan Strait ahead of Trump's planned China visit (Reuters)
US tariff reprieve sparks scramble, and skepticism, in China's export hubs (Reuters)
Soybeans in Spotlight as Trade Chiefs Prepare for Trump-Xi Meet (Bloomberg)

Europe caught between wars in Iran and Ukraine as energy and security needs collide

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have put a divided Europe between a rock and a hard place. Political polarization and a reliance on natural gas imports have complicated Brussel's longer-term preparations for an emboldened Russia given a strained relationship with the US.

Sources:

President Nawrocki refuses to sign law to tap 44B euros in EU defense loans for Poland (AP; 3/10)
Germany's Merz sees no plan for bringing Iran war to swift end (Reuters; 3/10)
Western nations step up military presence in Eastern Mediterranean during Iran conflict (Reuters; 3/10)
Russian aluminum's share of lME stocks hit 60% in February (Reuters; 3/10)
Romania allows 'defensive' US refueling, monitoring for Iran operations at its airbases (Reuters)
Spain permanently withdraws ambassador as rift with Israel deepens (Reuters)
EU envoys approve sanctions on 19 Iranian officials, entities over rights violations (Reuters)
Putin's Iran War Dividend Raises Alarm Among Some US Allies (Bloomberg)
Return to Russian Fossil Fuels Would Be Strategic Blunder, EU's Von Der Leyen Says (WSJ)

See also:

Russia and Ukraine both claim front-line progress with US-brokered talks on hold (AP; 3/10)
Zelenskiy says Turkey ready to host next trilateral peace talks (Reuters; 3/10)
Ukraine sends drone experts to three countries in Middle East, Zelenskiy says (Reuters)
Europe's New Energy Crisis Will Mean a Bull Market in Renewables (WSJ)

US pulls Latin America closer through military collaboration, trade ties

Ecuador and Paraguay have increased their military cooperation with the US, who legally recognized Rodríguez's leadership in Venezuela as part of its efforts to accelerate diplomatic normalization and access to vast natural resources.

Comment: The administration has moved quickly to establish its primacy in Latin America and exert influence on regional policy.

Sources:

Ecuador readies a major offensive on criminal groups, with US logistical support (AP)
Paraguay lawmakers approve defense agreement allowing an increased US military presence (AP; 3/10)
Rodríguez Recognized as 'Sole' Venezuela Leader by US in Court (Bloomberg)

See also:

South Africa deploys soldiers to the streets to tackle organized and violent crime (AP)
Exclusive: Chevron, Shell closing in on first big oil production deals in Venezuela since US captured Maduro, sources say (Reuters; 3/10)
Venezuela Names New Oil Minister to Lead Energy Sector Recovery (Bloomberg)

Odds & Ends

Anthropic court battle, ban exemptions highlight dependence on AI used in war

Anthropic received support from technology companies and former military officials as well as limited reprieve from its Pentagon ban. The integration of AI tools into US military capabilities has become all the more pressing given the intelligence and targeting uses along with the growing prevalence of cyber warfare.

Sources:

Microsoft and retired military chiefs back AI company Anthropic in court fight against Pentagon (AP)

US medical equipment company Stryker says cyber attack disrupted its global networks (AP)

Microsoft backs Anthropic in amicus brief to halt US DOD's 'supply-chain risk' designation (Reuters; 3/10)

Anthropic has strong case against Pentagon blacklisting, legal experts say (Reuters)

Pentagon opens door to exempt Anthropic use beyond 6-month ramp-down, memo says (Reuters)

Senators Propose Federal AI Commission Days After Anthropic Ban (WSJ)

Iran Expands War With Major Cyberattack Against U.S. Company (WSJ)

See also:

US Senate confirms National Security Agency director, ending long vacancy (Reuters; 3/10)

ChatGPT, other AI chatbots approved for official use in US Senate, NYT Reports (Reuters; 3/10)

South Korea Presidential aide says AI cooperation with UAE could accelerate after conflict (Reuters)

Portugal warns foreign state-backed hackers targeting officials' and military messaging accounts (Reuters)

Satellite firm extends Middle East image delay to prevent use by US adversaries (Reuters; 3/10)

Agents blocked on Amazon as surrogate software challenges e-commerce model

Amazon won an injunction against the use of third party "agents" on its platform. Increasingly popular AI intermediary software capable of handling routine tasks on your behalf has the potential to reshape advertising-dominated internet commerce - along with introducing new security vulnerabilities.

Sources:

Amazon wins order blocking access for Perplexity's AI shopping 'agent' (Reuters; 3/10)

What Is OpenClaw? AI Marvel or Cybersecurity Nightmare (Bloomberg)

Amazon's Win Against Perplexity Kicks AI Shopping Wars Into High Gear (WSJ)

See also:

Meta to acquire Moltbook, the social network for AI agents (AP; 3/10)

Amazon launches healthcare AI assistant on its website app (Reuters; 3/10)

White House pushes SAVE Act; Georgia runoff ahead for House seat

President Trump pressured Republicans to bypass the Senate filibuster in order to pass the SAVE Act. He warned, "It'll guarantee the midterms ... if you don't get it, big trouble". (AP) The specific identification requirements and other restrictive measures could effectively disenfranchise millions of eligible voters in November.

Separately, a Democrat finished atop the final round of voting in a crowded field to replace Marjorie Taylor Green in the House. The Republican challenger in the forthcoming runoff has been endorsed by President Trump.

Comment: The president is tacitly admitting that the purpose of the SAVE Act is to prevent control of the House from changing hands.

Sources:

Trump pushes GOP on voting bill, demanding an end to most mail balloting (AP; 3/9)

Thune says Senate to consider voting bill but pushes back on demands for 'talking filibuster' (AP; 3/10)

Trump has one prescription for midterms. House Republicans have another (AP)

Trump-backed Fuller and Democrat Harris move to Georgia runoff to succeed Marjorie Taylor Green (AP; 3/10)

Trump-backed candidate to face Democrat in Georgia runoff to replace Greene (Reuters; 3/10)

Georgia Democrat Leads in Marjorie Taylor Greene's District (Bloomberg)

Trump Gains Prominent Ally in Killing Senate Filibuster (WSJ)

See also:

Federal distrust prompts some Democratic states to protect polling places, election records (AP)

Rising gas prices from Iran war imperil Trump's Republican majority in Congress (Reuters):

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Sources were published/accessed on the date of the Recap unless otherwise noted. Article headlines are subject to change and may not correspond to those given here.

This is not advice - financial or otherwise - and should not be taken as such.