Recap | 18 March 2026

22 hours ago
10 min read

| Federal Reserve signals extended hold with Powell to stay on

| War in Middle East escalates amid assassinations and infrastructure attacks

| Iran leverages control of Strait of Hormuz as President Trump's calls go unheeded

| White House drums up relief measures to mitigate energy supply challenges

| Oil and gas vault higher, stocks and bonds languish post-Fed

| US wholesale inflation accelerates prior to Iran war, augurs higher prices

| Brazil cuts, Australia hikes; Japan, Canada, and Indonesia hold monetary policy steady ahead of ECB and BOE meetings

| Nasdaq approved for blockchain-based trading

| Pakistan and Afghanistan pause fighting for end of Ramadan

| UK, European officials seek to shore up support for Ukraine

| US signs deal with Indonesia, looks to Brazil for critical minerals and rare earths

| Intelligence assessment downgrades Taiwan invasion threat

| Iranians contend with internet blackouts as cyber threats persist

| AI buildout eroding profitability with chips and power in short supply

| New intellectual property debates arise from AI usage amid workforce changes

| Arizona charges Kalshi as first state to challenge prediction markets as illegal gambling

Commentary - not advice.

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

| Disclaimers

Headlines

Federal Reserve signals extended hold with Powell to stay on

The Fed will remain on hold until they are confident that tariff inflation has passed through and they have had time to assess the uncertain evolution of war in the Middle East.

With the broader economy still relatively solid and unemployment steady, the need for greater progress on inflation and clarity on the outlook will push any rate cuts out until December at the earliest, barring any unforeseen deterioration in labor markets. Conversely, an unexpected de-anchoring of inflation expectations could even bring a pivot toward hikes instead.

Chair Powell will remain at the Fed until DOJ investigations are unambiguously resolved and potentially longer to safeguard the US central bank's independence - ensuring his influence endures beyond his tenure as Chair.

Source:

Fed Update | March 2026 FOMC Reaction (Datum Research)

See also:

Fed keeps key rate unchanged as Powell vows to stay until DOJ investigation is finished (AP)
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, expects inflation to climb (Reuters)
Fed's Powell confirms Trump is stuck with him until DOJ probe is 'well and truly' over (Reuters)
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Powell Vows to Stay Amid DOJ Probe (Bloomberg)
Bond Market Prices Out Rate Cut Hopes as Fed's Message Sinks In (Bloomberg)
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook (WSJ)
Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In. (WSJ)

War in Middle East escalates amid assassinations and infrastructure attacks

War in the Middle East appeared poised to escalate after the assassination of top Iranian security and intelligence officials and Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars natural gas field. The attack on the critical domestic hub prompted retaliation against the UAE and Qatar in particular, causing "extensive" damage to the largest liquid natural gas (LNG) facility in the world.

The prospect of lasting infrastructure damage sent energy prices higher as Gulf countries looked to the US to take Iran's military capabilities down for good. With Iran's Revolutionary Guard entrenched and in effective control, the US reportedly contemplated additional forces and a limited ground presence (Reuters).

Sources:

Both sides in Iran war ratchet up attacks on energy facilities, as oil prices surge (AP)
Reported attack hits South Pars natural gas field, an energy lifeline for Iran (AP)
Iran launches barrage of missiles after Israel kills 2 of its top officials (AP; 3/17)
Iran hits Qatar energy hub, targets Saudi Arabia, after huge gas field struck (Reuters)
Exclusive: US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase (Reuters)
Iran's government appears intact, if degraded, US spy chief says (Reuters)
Iran says nuclear doctrine unlikely to change, Hormuz Strait needs new protocol (Reuters)
Iran, Israel Trade Strikes on Energy Facilities in Worsening War (Bloomberg)
World's Largest LNG Plant Suffers Extensive Damage, Qatar Says (Bloomberg)
UAE Official Says Iran War Tightens Gulf Ties to US, Israel (Bloomberg; 3/17)
Escalating Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets Plunge Iran War Into New Phase (WSJ)
Gulf States Want the U.S. to Cripple Iran's Regime Before Ending the War (WSJ; 3/17)

See also:

What to know about the resurgent war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon (AP)
Lebanon has proposed the first direct talks with Israel in decades. It might be too late (AP; 3/17)
Israel steps up Beirut strikes, hits bridges in South Lebanon (Reuters)
Exclusive: Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One (WSJ)

Iran leverages control of Strait of Hormuz as President Trump's calls go unheeded

President Trump expressed frustration with others who would not commit to helping secure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as countries are reluctant to enter the conflict. Land-based and drone attacks on passing ships are an impediment to safe passage through the narrow waterway.

Iran's effective control of the Strait of Hormuz has furnished the regime with considerable leverage while their crude exports sail unscathed.

Comment: Seizing control of the strait would require a material escalation but may prove necessary to end the conflict on satisfactory terms and mitigate Iran's capacity to hold the region and global oil markets hostage.

Sources:

China ignores Trump's Hormuz request as the Iran war deepens and his Beijing trip slips (AP; 3/17)
Trump fumes at NATO for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, and embraces going it alone (AP; 3/17)
Japan's leader faces high-wire act in Washington over Trump's Iran demands (Reuters)
Europe tells Trump Iran is 'not our war' (Reuters)
Trump Ditches Appeal for Help in Iran War, Slamming Allies (Bloomberg)
Iran Moves Its Own Oil Through Hormuz as It Chokes Other Traffic (Bloomberg)
Hormuz Escape Route Suggests Ships Navigate on Iran's Terms (Bloomberg; 3/17)
What U.S. Marines Can Do to Help Reopen the Strait of Hormuz (WSJ)

White House drums up relief measures to mitigate energy supply challenges

Countries around the world are scrambling to address oil and fuel shortages and to secure stocks of fertilizer and other crucial cargo. The US eased sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company and issued a two-month waiver of the Jones Act to facilitate domestic energy and agricultural shipments.

Comment: As global energy security is being stress-tested, many are looking for alternate sources (e.g. renewables), supply chains, and storage.

Sources:

US eases Venezuela oil sanctions as Trump seeks to boost world oil supply during Iran war (AP)
US waives shipping regulation to ease fuel, fertilizer deliveries (Reuters)
US poised to waive summer gasoline regulations to ease prices, sources say (Reuters)
US broadly authorizes transactions with Venezuela's oil company PDVSA (Reuters)
Trump Waives US Shipping Law for Oil and Gas In Bid to Lower Prices (Bloomberg)

See also:

Iran war as US farmers worried about the cost and availability of fertilizer (AP)
Iran war energy shock sparks global push to reduce fossil fuel dependence (Reuters)
Brazil sends alarm on fertilizers as price spike spurs cheaper alternatives (Reuters)

Markets & Economies

Oil and gas vault higher, stocks and bonds languish post-Fed

As energy infrastructure came under fire, oil surged on Wednesday with gasoline prices vaulting to multi-year highs. Equity losses worsened after a relatively hawkish FOMC (i.e., no accommodation forthcoming) while bond yields climbed higher alongside inflation narratives.

Sources:

Oil extends gains to rise 5.6% after Iran attacks Gulf energy facilities (AP)
US drivers see gas prices jump to their highest level since 2023 as the Iran war drags on (AP)
US stocks slump on worries about higher oil prices, inflation and interest rates (AP)
Stocks slump after Fed keeps rates unchanged as oil prices climb (Reuters)
Oil and Gas Prices Surge After Iran Attacks Major Qatari Plant (Bloomberg)
Oil Jumps as Major Energy Assets Targeted in Mideast Conflict (Bloomberg)
Stocks and Bonds Drop as War Spurs Oil, Fed Holds: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
Saudi Arabia Has Revived Half Its Oil Exports Via Hormuz Bypass (Bloomberg)
Oil Rises After Attacks on Middle East Energy Sites; Asian Stocks Fall (WSJ)
Dimming Hopes for Rate Cuts Drag Down U.S. Stocks (WSJ)

See also:

Bitcoin Declines the Most in Three Weeks as Risk Aversion Rises (Bloomberg)
Cliffwater Private Credit Fund's Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P (Bloomberg)
Exclusive: Private Credit's Investor Exodus Spreads to Consumer Loans (WSJ)
Banks Lean In to Finance Private-Credit Fund Withdrawals Even as Sentiment Sours (WSJ)

US wholesale inflation accelerates prior to Iran war, augurs higher prices

Wholesale inflation came in higher than forecast in February, jumping 3.4% on an annual basis (core: 3.9%); services prices increased 0.5% m/m.

Comment: The fact that producer prices accelerated before the war augurs poorly for near-term price stability.

Sources:

US wholesale prices rose by a surprisingly hot 3.4% last month, the most in a year (AP)
US producer inflation runs hotter in February, expected to accelerate further amid Iran war (Reuters)
Prices Paid to US Producers Increase by More Than Forecast (Bloomberg)

See also:

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rose in February (WSJ; 3/17)

Brazil cuts, Australia hikes; Japan, Canada, and Indonesia hold monetary policy steady ahead of ECB and BOE meetings

Apart from a modest rate cut in Brazil from restrictive levels, central banks around the world opted for prudence in light of oil-shock uncertainty. After a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike, the Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank Indonesia (BI) all held.

Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) holds were expected on Thursday.

Comment: Absent pressing inflation concerns, many central banks may opt for extended pauses while its too soon to tell the implications of the war in the Middle East.

Sources:

Brazil central bank kicks off easing with cautious 25-bp cut after oil shock (Reuters)
Bank of Canada assessing high pil price, would hike rates if needed, says Macklem (Reuters)
ECB to talk tough as Iran war raises inflation fears (Reuters)
Bank of England to sit tight as Middle East conflict turns up inflation heat (Reuters)
BOJ Says Will Raise Rates if Outlook Stays on Track After Hold (Bloomberg)
Bank of Japan Holds Steady as Middle East Tensions Raise Uncertainty (WSJ)
Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady, Warns of Impact From Prolonged War in Iran (WSJ)
Indonesia's Central Bank Holds Rates as Middle East Risks Cloud Outlook (WSJ; 3/17)
Australia's RBA Raises Rates in Split Decision as Inflation Fears Intensify (WSJ; 3/16)

See also:

ECB sees underpriced geopolitical risks, warns against easing bank rules (Reuters)

Nasdaq approved for blockchain-based trading

Blockchain integration reached an important milestone as the SEC granted Nasdaq approval to begin trading tokenized equities, which are transacted and settle via distributed ledger.

Source:

Nasdaq receives SEC nod for trading in tokenized securities (Reuters)

Around the World

Pakistan and Afghanistan pause fighting for end of Ramadan

Sharing borders with Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a temporary break in hostilities in observance of the Eid al Fitr holiday to mark the end of Ramadan.

Sources:

Pakistan and Afghanistan announce temporary pause in fighting, 2 days after deadly Kabul strike (AP)
Pakistan, Afghanistan to pause fighting for Eid, as dispute rages over Kabul bombing target (Reuters)

UK, European officials seek to shore up support for Ukraine

UK and European officials sought to shore up support for Ukraine as the Iran war has drawn attention away from the conflict with Russia, who have enjoyed a near-term fiscal boost from oil's surge and sanctions relief.

With Ukraine's air defense systems dwindling and financing critical, the EU is trying to resolve a dispute over the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil. Ahead of April elections, Hungary is blocking promised funding to Ukraine until the pipeline resumes deliveries.

Sources:

Zelenskyy and Starmer urge continuing support for Ukraine against Russia as Iran war steals focus (AP; 3/17)
EU offers to pay Ukraine to fix an oil pipeline that's been a focal point of Ukraine-Hungary feud (AP; 3/17)
Orban Amps Up Druzhba Oil Standoff After Kyiv Accepts EU Mission (Bloomberg; 3/17)
Exclusive: Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran (WSJ; 3/17)

US signs deal with Indonesia, looks to Brazil for critical minerals and rare earths

The US brokered a trade deal with Indonesia to secure another source of critical minerals, although the implementation is unclear after the Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA tariffs. The US is also seeking to invest in Brazil's vast natural resource potential as it looks for ways around China's rare earths dominance.

Sources:

A new US trade deal with Indonesia secures fossil fuels and access to critical minerals (AP)
US in talks with Brazil on critical minerals, US diplomat says at signing of Goias state deal (Reuters)
US Snubbed by Lula Government at Critical Minerals Summit (Bloomberg)
How Brazil Can Chip Away at China's Rare Earths Dominance (Bloomberg)

Intelligence assessment downgrades Taiwan invasion threat

In an annual report, US intelligence does not believe an incursion into Taiwan is likely next year. China is expected to pursue "reunification" without force, principally via economic and political channels.

Sources:

China makes energy security 'reunification' offer to Taiwan amid Middle East war (Reuters)
US Intelligence Agencies Soften Outlook on China's Plans for Taiwan (Bloomberg)

See also:

How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive (WSJ)

Odds & Ends

Iranians contend with internet blackouts as cyber threats persist

The Iran war has brought daily headlines concerning internet blackouts and persistent cyber attacks with real-world consequences.

Sources:

Iran's internet blackout silences voices at home as diaspora creators fill the void (AP; 3/17)
UK watchdog tightens cyber incident reporting rules as attacks surge (Reuters)
Greek firms scan computer systems as Iran war raises cyberattack risks, sources say (Reuters)
Stryker Cyberattack Delays Surgeries for Some Patients (Bloomberg)
U.S. Cyber Assault on Iran Before Bombing Hasn't Stopped Hackers (WSJ; 3/17)

AI buildout eroding profitability with chips and power in short supply

The rapid buildout of AI infrastructure is weighing on profitability, worsening chip shortages for memory and taxing power capacity.

Sources:

Micron forecasts strong revenue on AI boom; higher spending plan knocks shares (Reuters)
Samsung Elec and AMD sign MOU on AI memory, explore foundry partnership (Reuters)
Micron's Heavy Factory Spending Overshadows Booming Memory Sales (Bloomberg)
Meeting Surging Demand for AI Memory Chips Has a Climate Cost (Bloomberg)
Micron Sales Nearly Triple Amid Tight Memory Supply (WSJ)

See also:

Google Ties Data Center to 20-Year Power Deal, Solar Investment (Bloomberg)
AI Boom Drives US to Build Enough Battery Systems for Domestic Demand (Bloomberg)

New intellectual property debates arise from AI usage amid workforce changes

Society's adoption of AI has raised fundamental issues about the use of intellectual property during training, copyright protections for generated works, and even the use of one's likeness and personhood after death.

Meanwhile, job losses attributed to AI integration efforts continue unabated.

Sources:

An AI-rendered Val Kilmer will posthumously appear in a new film (AP)
BMG sues Anthropic for using Bruno Mars, Rolling Sones lyrics in AI training (Reuters)
UK to examine labelling AI content among wider copyright reforms (Reuters)
AI Is Being Built to Replace You - Not Help You (Bloomberg)
HSBC Mulls Deep Job Cuts From Multiyear AI-Fueled Overhaul (Bloomberg)

Arizona charges Kalshi as first state to challenge prediction markets as illegal gambling

Arizona became the first US state to bring criminal charges against prediction market operator Kalshi.

Comment: The line between trading and gambling can be thin to nonexistent.

Sources:

Arizona hits Kalshi with criminal charges, escalating fight between states and prediction markets (AP; 3/17)
Kalshi criminally charged in Arizona for operating illegal gambling business (Reuters)
Arizona Files Illegal-Gambling Charges Against Predictions Platform Kalshi (WSJ; 3/17)

See also:

Wisconsin lawmakers take a shot at joining the ranks of states allowing online sports betting (AP; 3/17)

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Sources were published/accessed on the date of the Recap unless otherwise noted. Article headlines are subject to change and may not correspond to those given here.

This is not advice - financial or otherwise - and should not be taken as such.