Recap | 28 January 2026
- Edward von der Schmidt
- 3 days ago
- 7 min read
Federal Reserve holds, signals extended pause
US-Iran rhetoric escalates as Middle East urges calm
Secretary Rubio testifies before Congress
Gold vaults higher against dollar weakness while stocks flirt with records
Big Tech's AI spending compounds chip shortages
Census flags impact of reduced US immigration
Consumer confidence declines in light of employment unease
Bank of Canada, Banco Central do Brasil hold
UK-China reset highlights global trade refactoring
ASEAN ministerial confronts conflict in Myanmar, contested South China Sea
Vietnam and EU announce closer partnership
Democrats negotiate with administration over DHS funding to avert shutdown
White House looks to resolve crypto impasse
US looks for options to process fuel, store nuclear waste amid surging power demand
Virginia redistricting effort held up in court
EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT
Headlines
Federal Reserve holds, signals extended pause
At the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that policy will remain in a holding pattern. Risks to employment and inflation appear to have lessened and the economic outlook has improved.
A sharp deceleration in prices or rapid deterioration in labor markets could change the Fed's thinking and compel lowering rates sooner, but the FOMC believe they are "well-positioned" to consider the "extent and timing" of future policy adjustments.
Given concerns surrounding the central bank's independence and Powell's successor as Chair, the Fed appears set to hold through April - if not longer.
Sources:
Fed Update | January 2026 FOMC Reaction (Datum Research)
See:
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged even as Trump continues to insist they be lowered (AP)
Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees 'somewhat elevated' inflation and stabilizing job market (Reuters)
Fed Holds Rates as Window for Another Powell Cut Begins to Close (Bloomberg)
Fed Holds Rates Steady for First Time Since July (WSJ)
US-Iran rhetoric escalates as Middle East urges calm
President Trump tied military action in Iran to nuclear enrichment negotiations as the US readied naval assets. Neighboring countries pushed back on armed intervention given stability concerns with the Iranian regime threatening retribution.
Sources:
Middle East worries over possible US strike on Iran one month after protests began (AP)
Trump warns Iran to make nuclear deal or next attack will be 'far worse' (Reuters)
Trump Tells Iran Time Running Out for Deal as Ships Enter Region (Bloomberg)
Middle East Scrambles to Find U.S., Iran a Diplomatic Off-Ramp (WSJ)
Key Gulf Allies Say They Won't Aid U.S. in an Iran Strike, Limiting Trump's Options (WSJ)
Secretary Rubio testifies before Congress
Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate, where he addressed working group discussions concerning US security interests in Greenland as well as the administration's near-term plans for Venezuela.
Sources:
Rubio defends Trump on Venezuela while trying to allay fears about Greenland and Nato (AP)
Rubio says technical talks with Denmark, Greenland officials over Arctic security have begun (AP)
Rubio details how the Trump administration will control Venezuela's oil money (AP)
US, Greenland and Denmark start diplomatic talks to ease Trump tensions (Reuters)
Rubio Says US Ready to Use Force to Ensure Venezuela's Cooperation (Bloomberg)
US, Denmark Start Talks Over Greenland Deal to Assuage Trump (Bloomberg)
Markets & Economies
Gold vaults higher against dollar weakness while stocks flirt with records
Major US equity indices traded near record closes even as gold and precious metals rallied amid a perceived flight-to-safety and so-called 'debasement' trade that accompanied dollar weakness.
Oil rallied on geopolitical tremors notwithstanding supply overhangs.
Comment: 'Debasement' implies that fiscal profligacy and inflation will erode the value of fiat currencies relative to tangible collateral such as precious metals.
Sources:
Asian shares mostly fall and gold jumps more than 4% after the Fed keeps rates unchanged (AP)
US stocks hold near their all-time highs while the dollar's value stabilizes (AP)
Gold eyes $5,600 on flight to safety; silver tops $120 (Reuters)
Oil prices gain 1.5% on increasing concerns of Iran attack (Reuters)
Saudi Arabia may set light crude price at discount for first time since 2020 (Reuters)
Copper hits record high as geopolitical risks, weak dollar boost metals (Reuters)
Gold Tops $5,500 as Record Rally Gains Pace on Debasement Trade (Bloomberg)
US Dollar Falls Again as Debasement Fears Outweigh Bessent's Boost (Bloomberg)
Oil Climbs From Four-Month High as Trump Ramps Up Iran Threats (Bloomberg)
Gold Hits New High, Oil Rises as Iran Tensions Rekindle (WSJ)
Gold Breaks Record as Stocks Muddle Through Fed Pause (WSJ)
Big Tech's AI spending compounds chip shortages
Earnings releases from major technology companies highlighted robust AI-driven capital expenditures. Surging AI demand has also exacerbated supply constraints for memory chips, including those in mobile phones and consumer devices.
Comment:
Chip shortages were one of the principle early drivers of pandemic-era inflation.
Sources:
Census flags impact of reduced US immigration
Declines in immigration have led to a material deceleration of US population growth.
Comment: In the long-run, an increasing population and productivity gains derived from technological progress are the principle drivers of economic growth.
Sources:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html
Immigration Crackdown Slows U.S. Population Growth (1/27; WSJ)
Consumer confidence declines in light of employment unease
The latest Conference Board survey reflected waning confidence in economic and labor market conditions.
Sources:
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/index.cfm
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy falls sharply in January to lowest level since 2014 (1/27; AP)
Bank of Canada, Banco Central do Brasil hold
Central banks in Canada and Brazil held policy rates steady at their latest meeting while highlighting elevated outlook uncertainty.
Sources:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/01/fad-press-release-2026-01-28/
Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% as Uncertainty Binds Rate Path (Bloomberg)
Bank of Canada Stands Pat on Rates, Warns of Heightened Uncertainty (WSJ)
Brazil's Central Bank Holds Rate High, Signals March Cut (WSJ)
Around the World
UK-China reset highlights global trade refactoring
UK Prime Minister Starmer visited Beijing in the first such trip since 2018. Starmer and China's President Xi spoke to economic cooperation and improved ties.
Comment:
Global trading counterparties are seeking to diversify country and regional exposure amid policy volatility and supply chain considerations.
Sources:
Starmer calls for UK to have a deeper relationship with China during 'challenging times' (AP)
Starmer, Xi signal reset in China-UK ties, eye economic wins (Reuters)
'Pivot to China' gathers pace as Starmer lands in Beijing (Reuters)
Xi Says China Weighing Visa-Free UK Access After Meeting Starmer (Bloomberg)
U.K.'s Starmer Joins Ranks of U.S. Allies Testing China's Embrace (WSJ)
ASEAN ministerial confronts conflict in Myanmar, contested South China Sea
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations gathered foreign ministers in the Philippines to discuss security, trade, and other interests.
Sources:
https://asean.org/press-statement-by-the-chair-of-the-asean-foreign-ministers-retreat-3/
ASEAN top diplomats under pressure to end Myanmar war and finalize South China Sea pact (AP)
ASEAN should adhere to rule of law in face of 'unilateral actions,' Philippines' top diplomat says (AP)
Philippines hosts ASEAN foreign minister retreat to tackle regional issues (Reuters)
Vietnam and EU announce closer partnership
The EU and Vietnam met to bolster strategic economic cooperation as each sought to address global trade uncertainty.
Sources:
Odds & Ends
Democrats negotiate with administration over DHS funding to avert shutdown
Senate Democrats threatened to hold up funding legislation absent DHS and ICE reforms. Negotiations with the White House regarding a short-term solution have been ongoing.
Sources:
White House looks to resolve crypto impasse
Disagreement between financial institutions and cryptocurrency firms regarding compensation for deposits has held up stablecoin legislation in the Senate with the White House seeking to intervene in order to move a key policy initiative forward.
Sources:
US looks for options to process fuel, store nuclear waste amid surging power demand
Data center power demands have pushed technology and other companies to explore alternative energy sources - including nuclear power. The disposal of nuclear waste has been a major gating item and the administration is soliciting voluntary arrangements for processing and storage.
Source:
US seeks interest from states in nuclear waste and reprocessing sites (Reuters)
Virginia redistricting effort held up in court
A federal judge blocked Virginia legislators' plan to hold a referendum to further redistricting efforts in the state prior to midterm elections in the fall. Lawmakers intend to appeal the ruling.
Comment:
Every seat will matter in each party's quest to control the House of Representatives.
Source:
Judge blocks Virginia lawmakers' bid for pro-Democratic voting map (Reuters)
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