Recap | 5 January 2026

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• US Removes Venezuela's Maduro

• World Responds to America's New Doctrine

• Ukrainian Security

• CES 2026

• Defense Contractors, Energy Stocks, and Metals Rally

• OECD Global Minimum Tax*

• US Manufacturing PMI Declines

• Iranian Protests Continue

• Syria and Israel to Resume Mediation

• Yemeni Separatists to Meet with Saudi Arabia

• China Hosts Diplomatic Envoys

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

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Headlines

US Removes Venezuela's Maduro:

US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday in what the White House deemed a law enforcement operation pursuant to allegations of narcoterrorism. President Trump repeatedly emphasized the value of Venezuela's vast oil resources as US officials spoke to both direct and indirect administrative control. Secretary of State Rubio will be tasked with policy implementation but the nature and degree of US involvement remained unclear.

Former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed the presidency on a temporary basis - a designation that could last up to 180 days before a determination that would trigger elections. Rodríguez declared a "state of external commotion", which authorized searches and arrests ostensibly tied to Maduro's removal. She signaled cooperation with the Trump administration.

AP:

• What we know about a US strike that captured Venezuela's Maduro and what comes next (1/3)

• Rubio says US will press change in Venezuela with oil embargo, while Trump insists 'we're in charge' (1/4)

Reuters:

• Maduro pleads not guilty to drug charges, saying he was 'kidnapped'

• US Republicans insist no 'endless war' looms in Venezuela

Bloomberg:

• Venezuela Regroups With New Leader, Old Repression Tactics

• Trump Asks Rubio to Lead Venezuela Overhaul After Maduro Arrest

WSJ:

• Venezuela's New Leader Rushes to Assert Control After Maduro's Fall

World Responds to America's New Doctrine:

The extrajudicial arrest of a head of state (who the US viewed as illegitimate) marked a significant departure from decades of US policy and introduced a new, expansive ethos in the name of national security. The operation raised questions about use of force, the implication of sovereignty, and compliance with international law.

President Trump also floated potential interventions in Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Greenland, among others. His comments elicited concern and drew rebukes from foreign leaders and prompted an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

While Latin American neighbors pledged cooperation to address international drug trafficking, European allies voiced concerns about precedent and the viability of NATO should the US seriously attempt to annex Greenland.

AP:

• After Maduro, who's next? Trump spurs speculation about his plans for Greenland, Cuba, and Colombia (1/4)

• US allies and adversaries use UN meeting to critique Venezuela intervention as America defends it

• Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO

• Mexico dismisses US military intervention despite Trump's threats after Venezuela operation

Reuters:

• Colombia to continue work with US on drug trafficking, government says

• Greenland dismisses US takeover fears amid Trump's remarks

Bloomberg:

• Denmark Says US Attack on Greenland Would Mean End of NATO

• Europe Backs Greenland After Trump Resumes Takeover Threats

WSJ:

• An Emboldened Trump Looks Beyond Venezuela

• Venezuela Ushers in Era of Trump's 'Donroe Doctrine'

Ukrainian Security:

The so-called "Coalition of the Willing" meets in Paris on Tuesday along with US envoys in order to iron out more detailed post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, including troop deployments and conditions for intervention.

Binding assurances would be necessary for Ukraine to accept any ceasefire agreement with Russia, which remains out of reach.

Separately, President Zelenskyy replaced the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

AP:

• Zelenskyy replaces Ukraine's security chief and hires a Canadian economic adviser

Reuters:

• Ukraine's allies meet with aim to make security pledges concrete

• Ukraine replaces spy boss who oversaw 'Spiderweb' airbases attack

• Turkey to stress 'strategic priority' of Black Sea security at Ukraine meeting in Paris

WaPo:

• Zelensky ousts security services chief, angering military commanders

CES 2026:

Hosted in Las Vegas from January 6-9, CES 2026 will feature advances in autonomous robotics and driving as companies seek to introduce physical applications for AI.

Comment: Announced plans to integrate robotic humanoids in factories in the next few years may imperil manufacturing employment already diminished by automation.

Reuters:

• Self-driving tech, AI take center stage at CES as automakers dial back EV plans

Bloomberg:

• Nvidia Debuts New AI Tools for Autonomous Vehicles, Robots

• Hyundai Unveils New Humanoid Robot for Work in Car Factories

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Markets & Economies

Defense Contractors, Energy Stocks, and Metals Rally:

Amid geopolitical uncertainty heightened by US action in Venezuela and possible interventions to follow, defense industry stocks and oil producers led broader equity rallies.

Metals' advance continued apace with copper trading at a new record in the face of supply constraints.

AP:

• Wall Street gains ground as crude prices and oil company stocks rise after the US raid on Venezuela

Reuters:

• US oil companies shares advance as Trump signals potential access to Venezuela's reserves

• Gold hits one-week high on Fed rate-cut bets, Venezuela turmoil

Bloomberg:

• Markets in Trump's New World Order Rally Even After Attacks

• Copper Surges to Fresh Record as Inventories 'Locked in the US'

WSJ:

• Oil Stocks, Banks Push Dow to New Record

• US Copper Prices Set First Record Since Summer Tariff Surge

OECD Global Minimum Tax*:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced a broad agreement on a 15% global minimum tax on corporations that was first proposed in 2021, albeit with exemptions for large US multinationals and that favor heavy research and development.

Comment: The intention was to limit companies "shopping" for favorable jurisdictions to park their money and avoid higher taxes by expatriating funds.

AP:

• US-based multinational companies will be exempt from global tax deal

WSJ:

• U.S. Companies Score Wins in Global Tax Deal

US Manufacturing PMI Declines:

The December ISM Manufacturing gauge marked its lowest headline reading in over a year as uncertainty and tariffs weighed on new orders and lifted prices paid. Industry gains were concentrated in electronics-related sectors.

Reuters:

• US factory sector contracts for 10th straight month in December

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Around the World

Iranian Protests Continue:

Nationwide protests in Iran sparked by a currency crisis continued as leaders there sought to allay public discontent while cracking down on dissent.

AP:

• Trump and top Iranian officials exchange threats over protests roiling Iran (1/2)

• What to know about the protests now shaking Iran as tensions remain high over its nuclear program (1/4)

Reuters:

• Iran's leaders struggle to end protests, US action in Venezuela strikes stokes fears

Syria and Israel to Resume Mediation:

Officials from Syria and Israel reportedly plan to meet on Tuesday for US-brokered talks in Paris to discuss disengagement and other security considerations.

AP:

• Syrian and Israeli officials set to resume US-mediated talks in Paris

Reuters:

• Syria, Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks

Yemeni Separatists to Meet with Saudi Arabia:

After a series of airstrikes coupled with explicit warnings wrested control of a shared border area in Yemen, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council will reportedly join other factions in talks hosted by Saudi Arabia aimed at resolving territorial disputes.

AP:

• Saudi-backed forces regain control of Yemen's Hadramout after days of airstrikes (1/4)

Reuters:

• Delegation led by Yemen's main separatist group to travel to Saudi Arabia, sources say

China Hosts Diplomatic Envoys:

Chinese officials hosted counterparts from Ireland, South Korea, and Pakistan to discuss potential economic and security cooperation.

AP:

• Ireland's Micheál Martin will visit China in the first trip by an Irish leader in 14 years

• China and South Korea pledge to bolster ties as regional tensions rise

• Pakistan and China call for 'visible and verifiable' steps against Afghan-based terror groups

Reuters:

• Irish PM aims for deeper trade talks with China in Beijing

• South Korea's Lee seeks to develop strategic cooperative partnership with China

• China, Pakistan reaffirm ties as US outreach to Islamabad deepens