Recap | 6 February 2026
- 5 days ago
- 9 min read
US-Iran dialogue reset in Oman achieves limited progress
New START lapse yields to US allegations of nuclear tests in China
EU readies new sanctions on Russia ahead of reported US meetings with Ukraine
Europe and China approach crypto with caution
Equities recover as bitcoin meltdown abates for now
Improving consumer sentiment for affluent masks labor market challenges
Fed officials speak to employment risks, inflation mandate, and central bank independence
Central banks in Europe, UK, Mexico, and India hold policy rates
Weekend elections to be held in Japan, Thailand, and Portugal
US outlines trade framework with India, agreement with Argentina
Canada and France to open consulates in Greenland
US considering additional arms sales to Taiwan according to FT, despite budget delays
DHS funding deal unlikely with Congress at odds over ICE
Europe warns TikTok on 'addictive' practices
EU confronts cyber risks, reportedly aims to secure drone chips
EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT
Headlines
US-Iran dialogue reset in Oman achieves limited progress
The US and Iran participated in indirect talks hosted by Oman on Friday, which were attended by the head of US Central Command. The scope of mediation was reportedly limited to Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Iran has maintained its right to nuclear enrichment, which the US opposes. The US is also seeking to discuss limitations on Iran's ballistic missile programs, its support for hostile regional proxies, and the treatment of Iranian citizens.
Although President Trump downplayed the urgency of negotiations and the parties settled on a mechanism for future talks, tensions remained high in the absence of more substantive agreement.
The US imposed additional targeted sanctions. President Trump also ordered discretionary secondary tariffs on countries doing business with Iran in any manner that threatens national security interests.
Sources:
Iran and US hold indirect talks in Oman. America's military leader in the Mideast joins the talks (AP)
Iran says talks with US in Oman were 'good start', will continue (Reuters)
Iran, US Say Talks to De-Escalate Tensions Had 'Good' Start (Bloomberg)
Trump Sets Process for Iran Tariffs But Does Not Apply Them (Bloomberg)
Iran Refuses to End Nuclear Enrichment in Talks With U.S. (WSJ)
A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran (WSJ; 2/5)
New START lapse yields to US allegations of nuclear tests in China
Russian officials lamented the expiration of the 2011 New START treaty with the US, but the countries agreed to restart high-level military communications for the first time since 2021 after talks in Abu Dhabi.
The US administration is seeking to negotiate a new nuclear arms treaty that would include China, but the latter has expressly declined to join a binding trilateral framework.
At the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, a US State Department representative accused China of conducting low-yield nuclear weapons testing in 2020.
Sources:
Kremlin says Russia and US agree that quick nuclear arms talks are needed (AP)
US and Russia agree to reestablish military dialogue after Ukraine talks (AP)
US accuses China of secret nuclear testing (Reuters)
Demise of US-Russia Nuclear Pact Sparks Fears of New Arms Race (Bloomberg; 2/4)
Trump Calls for New Nuclear Pact With Russia as Previous Treaty Ends (WSJ)
U.S. Accuses China of Secretly Conducting Nuclear Tests (WSJ)
EU readies new sanctions on Russia ahead of reported US meetings with Ukraine
The European Commission proposed comprehensive sanctions on Russian oil services, including shipping, financing, and trade. The measures are intended to further erode Russian oil revenues that have financed its war with Ukraine. The sanctions require the approval of all member states before going into effect.
The EU also introduced a new anti-circumvention tool, which will restrict the sale of electronics and radio equipment to high-risk counterparties.
While Ukraine struggled to protect its power grid from Russian air attacks, US officials eyed an ambitious timeline for a possible peace deal and subsequent elections (per Reuters). Bloomberg reported that US and Ukrainian representatives are planning to meet in Miami this coming week.
Sources:
EU commission proposes further sanctions on Russian oil trade and financial services (AP)
Zelenskyy says Ukrainian air force needs to improve as Russian drone barrages take a toll (AP)
EU targets Russian crude anew with far broader sanctions plan (Reuters)
Exclusive: US aims for March peace deal in Ukraine, quick elections, sources say (Reuters)
Ukraine's Zelenskiy calls for faster action on air defence, repairs to grid (Reuters)
EU Proposes Russian Maritime Services Ban to Hit Oil Trade (Bloomberg)
US-Ukraine Talks Expected in Miami Next Week as Attacks Continue (Bloomberg)
Europe and China approach crypto with caution
According to Reuters, European officials are preparing to discuss euro-denominated digital assets among other financing considerations for the bloc.
Separately, China has announced restrictions on yuan-denominated stablecoins and asset-backed tokens issued abroad.
Comment:
Official proposals regarding digital assets such as stablecoins and central bank digital currencies would appear to be a necessary step toward legal frameworks and broader adoption, which remain a ways off.
Similarly, governments outlining what cannot be done in the crypto space indirectly suggests what may be permissible. Laws and regulations offer clarity and are important components of institutional legitimacy.
Sources:
Markets & Economies
Equities recover as bitcoin meltdown abates for now
Investors weighed the disparate impact of AI advances as chipmakers spearheaded Friday's equity rally. On the other hand, massive capital expenditure plans drew scrutiny.
Bitcoin recouped Thursday's losses to halt a substantial weekly decline.
Sources:
US stocks soar to their best day since May as the Dow tops 50,000 and bitcoin stops plunging (AP)
Dow closes above 50,000, Nvidia soars as traders focus on AI spending (Reuters)
Bitcoin rallies, tops $70,000 as risk assets stabilise (Reuters)
Stocks Roar Back as Dow Average Hits 50,000 Mark: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
Bitcoin Reclaims Almost All of the Losses From Thursday's Rout (Bloomberg)
Asian Stocks Fall Amid Growing Investor Anxiety Over Massive AI Capex Plans (WSJ; 2/5)
Dow Hits 50000 as Stocks Rebound From a Tech Selloff (WSJ)
Improving consumer sentiment for affluent masks labor market challenges
Consumer sentiment gains in the February University of Michigan flash reading were driven by those with greater wealth. Near-term inflation expectations moderated.
Labor market data released on Thursday pointed to elevated jobless claims and reduced job availability.
Sources:
US job openings fall to 6.5 million, fewest since 2020, as labor market remains sluggish (AP; 2/5)
US births dropped last year, suggesting the 2024 uptick was short-lived (AP)
US consumer sentiment rises to six-month high in early February (Reuters)
US Job Openings Drop to Lowest Since 2020, Layoffs Edge Up (Bloomberg; 2/5)
US Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Rises to a Six-Month High (Bloomberg)
Weak Hiring, Layoff Plans Point a Gloomy Labor-Market Picture (WSJ; 2/5)
Consumer Sentiment Has Climbed in February, Michigan Survey Says (WSJ)
Fed officials speak to employment risks, inflation mandate, and central bank independence
San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized employment risks as she envisioned at least one or two additional rate cuts in 2026.
Vice Chair Jefferson offered a more sanguine view, reiterating that the central bank was "well-positioned".
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke to the importance of Federal Reserve independence and expressed confidence in his colleagues' commitment to their charge.
Sources:
Exclusive: Fed's Daly sees labor market vulnerabilities, room to cut interest rates (Reuters)
Fed's Jefferson cautiously optimistic about economy, sees jobs market stability, inflation falling (Reuters)
Fed's Jefferson Says Productivity Growth Can Help Curb Inflation (Bloomberg)
Bostic Says Fed Will 'Rise to the Moment' Amid Political Attacks (Bloomberg)
Central banks in Europe, UK, Mexico, and India hold policy rates
Mexico and India refrained from additional easing in their latest meetings to join the EU and UK in holding monetary policy steady amid economic uncertainty and divergent inflation forecasts.
Sources:
ECB keeps rates unchanged, signal comfort with dollar weakness (Reuters; 2/5)
ECB policymakers fret over risk of too-low inflation (Reuters)
India's central bank holds rates as trade deals ease pressure (Reuters)
Bank of England Risks Job Market in Bid to Tame Inflation (Bloomberg; 2/5)
Bank of Mexico Pauses in Rate-Cutting Cycle (WSJ; 2/5)
India's Central Bank Stands Pat as U.S. Trade Deal Brings Relief for Economy (WSJ)
Bank of England, ECB Hold Rates, With Future Easing a Wild Card (WSJ)
Around the World
Weekend elections to be held in Japan, Thailand, and Portugal
Japan holds parliamentary elections on Sunday to determine control of the lower house of the Diet.
Thailand is holding national elections for its parliament as well as a referendum on whether to replace its 2017 constitution.
Portugal will vote for its next president, who has limited but important powers including legislative veto.
Sources:
Japan's first female prime minister counts on her popularity to help her party win Sunday's election (AP)
What to know about Thailand's election as economic growth slows and nationalism rises (AP; 2/5)
Socialist seen beating far-right rival for Portuguese presidency with conservative help (Reuters)
What you need to know about Portugal's presidential runoff (Reuters)
Dollar heads for weekly rise, yen slumps ahead of Japan's election (Reuters)
Japan's 'Lone Wolf' Seeks Election Mandate to Go Bold on Spending and China (Bloomberg; 2/4)
Thai Reformist Warns Establishment May Again Thwart Popular Vote (Bloomberg)
US outlines trade framework with India, agreement with Argentina
The US disclosed details for its recently announced trade agreement with India, formally reducing the tariff rate on non-exempt Indian exports to 18%. The US removed secondary levies assessed for purchases of Russian oil.
The US also reached a trade agreement with Argentina, who remarked that the deal did not preclude business with China. Steel and aluminum levies were not part of the US agreement.
Sources:
Argentina and US sign a major trade deal to slash tariffs and boost a political alliance (AP; 2/5)
Facing high Trump tariffs, Africa's leading economy says it's close to a new trade deal with China (AP)
Argentina trade deals with US do not box out China, minister says (Reuters)
US, India release framework for an interim trade deal (Reuters)
Trump Removes India's 25% Russia-Related Tariff After Deal (Bloomberg)
Canada and France to open consulates in Greenland
Canada and France formally opened diplomatic outposts in Greenland's capital, Nuuk.
Source:
Canada and France opening consulates in Greenland following tensions over US push for control (AP)
US considering additional arms sales to Taiwan according to FT, despite budget delays
According to the FT (via Bloomberg), the US is preparing additional arm sales to Taiwan that would include air defense systems. Legislative delays have left Taiwan to pursue an extension of a previous agreement, which had drawn a rebuke from China.
Sources:
Odds & Ends
DHS funding deal unlikely with Congress at odds over ICE
With a stopgap bill set to run out on February 13, US lawmakers appeared no closer to resolving a dispute over full-year DHS funding and restrictions on ICE.
Sources:
Europe warns TikTok on 'addictive' practices
In a preliminary determination, the European Union alleged that TikTok's practices geared toward increasing engagement on the platform represented a breach of the Digital Services Act. TikTok disputed the findings.
Sources:
EU confronts cyber risks, reportedly aims to secure drone chips
Facing cyberattacks targeting EU staff and the Milan Olympics amid ongoing breach concerns, the EU is reportedly eyeing the chip security of its drone supply chain.
Comment:
When everything digital relies on a processor, chip security is paramount.
Sources:
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