Recap | 7 January 2026

• US Eyes Indefinite Control of Venezuela's Oil

• Proposed Greenland Annexation Vexes Allies

• Security Assurances Take Shape in Ukraine

• Housing, Defense Sectors Upended by Trump Proclamations

• JOLTS Data Hint at Stagnant Labor Market

• CBO Lowers Population Growth Estimates

• China Restricts Dual-Use Exports to Japan

• South Korea Looks to China as Mediator with North

• Saudi Arabia, UAE Proxy Battle in Yemen

EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT

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Headlines

US Eyes Indefinite Control of Venezuela's Oil:

The White House announced intentions to administer sales of Venezuelan crude for the foreseeable future; the mechanisms for doing so have not been finalized. Officials added that such control could be used to leverage policy favored by Washington without committing to further military involvement.

To that end, the US seized two tankers under foreign flags in coordination with the UK as it sought to enforce a naval embargo of Venezuelan oil exports.

The focus on oil comes juxtaposed with the DOJ's contention that the armed ouster of former President Maduro followed a request for law enforcement assistance. The motivation for the operation is central to its legality.

Some members of Congress mulled legislation to place limits on further military action in Venezuela and elsewhere.

AP:

• Trump administration's capture of Maduro raises unease about the international legal framework (1/6)

• US seeks to assert its control over Venezuelan oil with tanker seizures and sales worldwide

Reuters:

• US seizes Russian-flagged tanker, another tied to Venezuela as Trump widens oil push

• US says it needs to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely to drive change

Bloomberg:

• US Unveils Strategy on Venezuelan Oil, Sparking Rush for Access

• US Says It Will Control Venezuela Oil Exports Indefinitely

• US Seizes Two More Tankers in Venezuela Campaign

WSJ:

• Trump Team Works Up Sweeping Plan to Control Venezuelan Oil for Years to Come

• Trump Administration Draws Up New Legal Justification for Raid on Maduro

• U.S. Escalates Venezuela Oil Embargo With Two Tanker Seizures

Proposed Greenland Annexation Vexes Allies:

Declining to rule out an unlikely military intervention, administration officials pointed to closer integration with if not an outright purchase of Greenland to address security concerns in the Arctic.

Greenland is not for sale, however, and the US already enjoys largely unfettered access. European leaders have expressed support for Greenland's right to self-determination and concern for the durability of the NATO alliance. Secretary of State Rubio will meet with Danish officials next week.

Comment: In addition to Greenland's vast natural resources and strategic location, another motivation for annexation may be maritime rights. Sovereignty over the island's coastal waters would grant the US jurisdiction over key waterways and information infrastructure.

AP:

• White House says military 'always an option' in Greenland as European leaders reject US takeover (1/6)

• Trump threats against Greenland pose new, potentially unprecedented challenge to NATO

• Why Greenland is strategically important to Arctic security

Reuters:

• Rubio to meet Denmark leaders next week, signals no retreat on Trump's Greenland goal

• Greenland's history as a Danish territory and why Trump wants it

Bloomberg:

• Trump Team Races to Come Up With Deals for His Greenland Vision

• Trump Airs Doubts on NATO's Value as Greenland Tensions Rise

WSJ:

• Alarm Spreads Among U.S. Allies Over Trump's Demand for Greenland (1/6)

• Rubio Tells Lawmakers Trump Aims to Buy Greenland, Downplays Military Action (1/6)

• Greenland Confronts the Reality That Trump Isn't Going Away

Security Assurances Take Shape in Ukraine:

A "Coalition of the Willing" meeting with European leaders and US envoys in France on Tuesday saw potential post-war security guarantees begin to take shape for Ukraine. These included assistance with arms procurement, rebuilding, logistics, training, and intelligence alongside air and naval support.

US involvement would be centered on monitoring compliance with any peace agreement while the UK and France indicated a possible willingness to station troops away from current battle lines as part of an effort to buttress Ukraine's defenses.

Ukraine is seeking iron-clad security guarantees codified into law. A peace agreement with Russia has not materialized and ceding Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia remain major points of contention as attacks continue.

Comment: Europe has positioned Ukraine as its first line of defense against further Russian incursions into the continent.

AP:

• Ukraine's allies praise major progress on defense guarantees if a peace deal is struck with Russia (1/6)

• What to know about Ukraine allies' security guarantees as the war nears 4 years

Reuters:

• US backs security guarantees for Ukraine at summit of Kyiv's allies in Paris

• Zelenskiy seeks new Trump meeting as peace negotiators tackle land issue

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Markets & Economies

Housing, Defense Sectors Upended by Trump Proclamations:

President Trump's proposals to restrict large investor purchases of single-family homes and to penalize defense contractors who fail to adhere to White House directives weighed on related stocks and brought major equity indices down from trading near record highs.

AP:

• Trump says he wants to ban large investors from buying houses. It's part of his affordability plan

Reuters:

• Trump threatens to ban Wall Street investments in single-family homes

Bloomberg:

• Trump's Bid to Block Corporate Homebuying Blindsides Wall Street

• Trump Demands More Defense Spending But Threatens Biggest Contractors

• Stock Traders Whipsawed as Trump Sets Sights on Defense, Housing

WSJ:

• Trump Moves to Ban Big Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes

• Trump Orders Crackdown on Defense Industry Stock Buybacks

JOLTS Data Hint at Stagnant Labor Market:

The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) pointed to the lowest job availability in over a year as US employment continues to tread water.

AP:

• Job openings slide to 2nd lowest level in 5 years as housing remains sluggish

Reuters:

• US job openings slide to 14-month low; hiring weak in November

CBO Lowers Population Growth Estimates:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) lowered its projections for future population growth on account of declining immigration and demographic shifts.

Comment: Population growth and technological innovation are the principle long-term drivers of economic growth.

AP:

• Trump immigration policies and a lower fertility rate slow US growth projections, budget office says

WSJ:

• U.S. Population Growth Is Projected to Slow Further

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Around the World

China Restricts Dual-Use Exports to Japan:

China continued its diplomatic row with Japan over the latter's stance on Taiwan by introducing extraterritorial restrictions on dual-use (i.e., commercial and military) exports and initiating an anti-dumping probe. The rhetorical standoff raised concerns about future restrictions on rare earths exports, which are integral to auto-manufacturing.

AP:

• China bans exports to Japan of dual-use goods that could enhance Tokyo's military power (1/6)

• China announces another new trade measure against Japan as tensions rise

Reuters:

• Japan condemns China's dual-use export ban as rare earth curbs loom

Bloomberg:

• How Rare Earths Raise the Stakes in China-Japan Spat

South Korea Looks to China as Mediator with North:

After meeting with President Xi, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung emphasized the role that China could play as a mediator in the absence of direct correspondence with North Korea.

AP:

• South Korean leader says he asked China's Xi to act as mediator on North Korea issues

Reuters:

• South Korea's Lee says he asked Xi to play a mediating role on North Korea

Saudi Arabia, UAE Proxy Battle in Yemen:

Saudi Arabia alleged that the UAE facilitated the escape of the leader of the Southern Transitional Council to Abu Dhabi as a fractured anti-Houthi coalition in Yemen highlighted the two Gulf powers' burgeoning geopolitical rivalry.

AP:

• Separatist group in Yemen loses contact with delegation that went to Riyadh for talks

• What to know about the latest tensions in Yemen and the parties involved

Reuters:

• Saudi coalition says separatist leader fled Yemen with UAE help, advances in Aden

Bloomberg:

• Saudi Arabia Claims UAE Helped Yemen Separatist Leader Flee