A streamlined FOMC statement that preserved maximal flexibility belied a substantive tonal shift - the Fed is on an indefinite hold. Barring unforeseen labor market weakness, another rate adjustment before June appears unlikely. Fed officials will wait to assess policy implementation as it concerns tariffs and immigration as well as fiscal and regulatory developments. These assessments will precede deliberations about whether sufficient progress on inflation (i.e., a series o

With greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably lower and a willingness to preemptively support its employment goals, the...

The Fed has signaled that it will cut the Federal Funds target range 25bp (to 5.00-5.25%) on September 18 and initiate a monetary easing program. While nascent growth concerns could dovetail with excessive labor market cooling to motivate a larger initial reduction, more assertive forward guidance appears likely instead.

At its July 31 meeting, the Fed sought to communicate a more balanced assessment of risks to include labor market deceleration. Powell signaled an imminent policy easing program.