Points | FOMC - Hold Up

A streamlined FOMC statement that preserved maximal flexibility belied a substantive tonal shift - the Fed is on an indefinite hold. Barring unforeseen labor market weakness, another rate adjustment before June appears unlikely. Fed officials will wait to assess policy implementation as it concerns tariffs and immigration as well as fiscal and regulatory developments. These assessments will precede deliberations about whether sufficient progress on inflation (i.e., a series of lower readings) warrants another 25bp move.