Geopolitical concerns dominated Tuesday's headlines against steady US trading that saw the S&P 500 climb modestly. President Trump kicked off a Middle East tour that signaled Saudi Arabia's prominence as an ally, the rise of chip diplomacy, and a more transactional approach to diplomatic relations in general. Will-they-or-won't-they speculation surrounded the possibility of bilateral talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday with US officials set to attend. Muted

Encouraging dialogue and a trade war reprieve between the US and China bought time but not certainty as global risk markets reacted with cautious optimism. The S&P 500 rallied 3.3% and major equity indices climbed in unison while the dollar firmed and Treasury yields jumped. Geopolitical risks abound and diplomacy concerning Kashmir, Gaza, Iran, and Ukraine remained in flux. Central bankers sought to carefully assess evolving economic context to better inform monetary policy

The first post-Liberation Day trade agreement and the possibility of thawing Sino-American tensions lifted risk assets on Thursday. While the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq (+1.1%) registered back-to-back advances, 10-year Treasury yields climbed more than 10bp, crude oil futures vaulted nearly 3%, and BTC rallied to its highest levels since January 31. Various officials continued to call for calm amid fighting in Kashmir. Anecdotal reports pointed to a potential confluence of sh

The Federal Reserve's holding pattern appears set to continue indefinitely - or at least through the Summer. Perceptions of heightened outlook risks and deteriorating sentiment may or may not portend stagflation, but present circumstances are not yet so grave and pivotal facts may change. The economy's resilience has afforded the Fed time to await clearer indications out of Washington - particularly on tariffs - in order to assess implications for employment and inflation. Su

No one can tell you what the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board thinks better than Jerome Powell can himself. Why should you care? He sets the agenda for the Fed and steers monetary policy. What's more, he is actively trying to communicate what he and the Committee are thinking. Powell spoke at length at an Economic Club of Chicago event on April 16. A careful analysis of his responses would not only prepare you for the FOMC decision on May 7, it would provide insight into th

US equities fell for a second session before constructive trade headlines after the close offered support to overnight risk markets. Oil found its footing as a deceptive calm preceded hoped-for deal progress and Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Conflict flared in Kashmir between India and Pakistan while military action continued in Gaza and Yemen (notwithstanding a US-Houthi ceasefire). A planned meeting between the US and China in Geneva opened the door to a tariff pull

US equity momentum faded amid trade uncertainty and a pre-FOMC calm as the S&P 500 abandoned a nine-session winning streak that had put it back above Liberation Day levels. Dollar weakness pervaded though benchmark Treasury rates edged higher. Oil declined as OPEC+ voted in favor of output hikes in June. Trade deal announcements were lacking though new tariffs were put forward on foreign films. Tensions in Kashmir remained while Israel planned to expand its occupation of Gaza

Next to the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference, the FOMC minutes that follow three weeks after the meeting are the best and most detailed insight you will get into the Fed's deliberations until transcripts are released in five years. Returning to the March 18-19 minutes (published April 9), the discussions emphasized elevated uncertainty and outlook risks on account of policy unknowns. Nevertheless, Fed staff and officials were aware of growth concerns complementing hig

Major technology names boosted by data center requirements led an eighth-straight S&P gain as thawing US-China trade diplomacy boosted risk sentiment. Outlook uncertainty driven by a shifting tariff regime weighed on manufacturing PMIs while US port operators warned of precipitous shipping declines with negative implications for employment and economic activity down the line. Trade talks with Japan progressed slowly and came with a friendly warning. The US removed its Nationa