Recap | 11 February 2026
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- 9 min read
US and Iran at odds over nuclear enrichment as military buildup continues
Ukraine prepares spring voting plans ahead of bilateral talks with US
NATO unveils Arctic Sentry exercises in advance of Munich conference
Energy secretary visits Venezuela after US clears oil licenses
US adds more jobs than expected and unemployment rate ticks lower in January
Congressional Budget Office projects growing deficits over next decade
Federal Reserve officials caution on inflation, prefer pause
Equity indices hold ground amid AI concerns while Fed easing expectations slide
Bangladesh holds first elections since toppling government in 2024
NATO allies Greece and Turkey signal cooperative path forward
US sends military personnel to Nigeria to help confront insurgency
Congo leverages critical minerals supply to raise international financing
House rebuffs Trump by voting to rein in tariff authority
House passes SAVE Act, triggers filibuster debate with midterm elections looming
Administration to strike landmark EPA climate finding, sowing legal uncertainty
UK Supreme Court allows AI patents as H.M. Treasury plans digital bond issuance
EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT
Headlines
US and Iran at odds over nuclear enrichment as military buildup continues
President Trump indicated that the US would pursue an agreement focused on Iran's nuclear enrichment, implying military consequences should talks fail. In line with Israel's concerns, the US had previously sought to discuss Iran's ballistic missile program and support for regional proxies. Plans for broader negotiations with neighboring countries in Turkey fell through last week before the scope of mediation narrowed in Oman.
The nature and degree of enrichment might be an avenue for compromise, but Iran has insisted that its non-nuclear capabilities are non-negotiable. With talks at an impasse, the US continued to evaluate economic sanctions and seizures while building up its military assets in a presumed show of force.
Sources:
Trump says he 'insisted' to Netanyahu that US talks with Iran continue as Israel wants them expanded (AP)
Iran commemorates 1979 revolution as nation is squeezed by anger over crackdown and tensions with US (AP)
Trump says no 'definitive agreement' with Netanyahu, US talks with Iran to continue (Reuters)
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities (Reuters)
Trump Tells Netanyahu His 'Preference' Is to Reach Iran Deal (Bloomberg)
Exclusive: Pentagon Prepares Second Aircraft Carrier to Deploy to the Middle East (WSJ)
U.S. Weighs Seizing Tankers Carrying Iranian Oil to Pressure Tehran (WSJ)
Ukraine prepares spring voting plans ahead of bilateral talks with US
Ukraine is preparing for potential elections and a referendum to ratify any peace accord with Russia, but both would be contingent on a ceasefire. Territorial concessions in Donetsk remain a major point of disagreement along with control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - Europe's largest.
Wary of Russia, the EU outlined items that would signal a commitment to a lasting peace. Russia has continued to target Ukraine's power infrastructure while making incremental progress along the line of contention - at great cost.
Sources:
Top EU diplomat drafts a list of concessions Russia needs to make to secure real peace in Ukraine deal (AP; 2/10)
Russia says it will stick to New START's nuclear arms limits as long as the US does (AP)
Zelenskiy Says Deal on Territory Is Focus of Next Talks With US (Bloomberg)
Russian War Losses Now Exceed Recruitment, Western Officials Say (Bloomberg)
NATO unveils Arctic Sentry exercises in advance of Munich conference
NATO announced that it will begin joint preparedness exercises in the Arctic to coordinate capabilities and evaluate security needs. The announcement follows a shift toward European command and precedes this weekend's Munich Security Conference, where Secretary of State Rubio will lead a US delegation in a possible diplomatic reset.
The initiative comes as the alliance confronts strategic challenges from Russia and China. On Tuesday, an Estonian official warned that Russia planned to bolster its forces along Europe's eastern border, particularly if the conflict with Ukraine were resolved.
Sources:
Energy secretary visits Venezuela after US clears oil licenses
A day after the US administration cleared supporting activity for oil production in Venezuela, Energy Secretary Wright traveled there to meet with interim President Rodríguez and promote recently announced industry reforms.
The US is seeking to jumpstart Venezuelan oil production in the wake of Maduro's ouster.
Sources:
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visits Venezuela to assess oil industry overhaul (AP)
US energy secretary meets Venezuela's president as they face Herculean task of oil recovery (Reuters)
US issues license facilitating oil, gas exploration and production in Venezuela (Reuters; 2/10)
Trump Energy Chief Says US Aims to 'Set Free' Venezuelan Economy (Bloomberg)
U.S. Energy Secretary Talks Oil Revival - and Democracy - in Venezuela Visit (WSJ)
Markets & Economies
US adds more jobs than expected and unemployment rate ticks lower in January
January payrolls came in higher than anticipated as the headline unemployment rate edged lower, to 4.3%. Employment gains were driven by the healthcare sector. Prior job figures were revised lower.
The employment report surprise followed lackluster retail sales in December, which were published on a delay. Lower-income consumers' pullback has been masked by disproportionate spending from the affluent.
Comment:
Better-than-expected labor market data will give the Fed greater confidence in its decision to pause rate cuts. The downward revisions to prior job gains were actually less than what the Fed had modeled, which might suggest that their baseline assessment of employment conditions could improve.
Sources:
Surge of 130,000 US hires last month is a stark contrast to the weak hiring of 2025 (AP)
Retail sales unchanged in December from November, closing out year on a lackluster tone (AP; 2/10)
US job growth surges in January, but labor market far from turning around (Reuters)
US employment growth through March revised down by 862,000 jobs (Reuters)
US firms confront widening income gulf as wealthy spend, budget shoppers struggle (Reuters)
US Adds 130,000 Jobs and Unemployment Falls After Tepid 2025 (Bloomberg)
US Wraps Up Worst Non-Recession Year for Hiring Since 2003 (Bloomberg)
Healthcare Work Propels U.S. to Strongest Job Growth in More Than a Year (WSJ)
Job Growth Last Year Was Far Worse Than We Thought. Here's Why (WSJ)
Congressional Budget Office projects growing deficits over next decade
Notwithstanding January budget totals pointing to a smaller shortfall, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest projections forecasting a growing deficit over the next decade. Losses from tax cuts are expected to outpace tariff revenues.
The CBO employs more conservative growth estimates than those put forward by the administration, whose officials contend that faster growth will reduce budgetary shortfalls.
Sources:
CBO: Federal deficits and debt to worsen over next decade (AP)
US January budget deficit falls to $95 billion as revenue gains outpace spending growth (Reuters)
US budget deficit to keep growing amid Trump tax cuts, tariffs, CBO forecasts show (Reuters)
CBO Lifts US Deficit Call by $1.4 Trillion on Trump Policies (Bloomberg)
US Budget Gap Shrinks 17% for First-Third of 2026 Fiscal Year (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve officials caution on inflation, prefer pause
Several regional Fed presidents expressed their preference to continue holding rates for now with labor markets relatively stable and inflation still above-target.
Echoing sentiments from the White House, Governor Miran has posited that productivity gains from deregulation and AI could bring faster growth without inflationary pressures and thus accommodate lower policy rates.
Sources:
Fed's Schmid says too soon to expect productivity to fix still-elevated inflation (Reuters)
Fed's Schmid Says Restrictive Rates Needed to Cool Inflation (Bloomberg)
Fed's Miran Says There's Still a Variety of Reasons to Cut Rates (Bloomberg)
Fed's Miran Says Rate Cuts Still Possible Following Strong Jobs Report (WSJ)
Fed's Interest-Rate Stance Well-Positioned, Dallas Fed President Says (WSJ; 2/10)
Fed's Hammack: Monetary Policy Is in a Good Place to Stay on Hold (WSJ; 2/10)
Equity indices hold ground amid AI concerns while Fed easing expectations slide
Stocks weathered reduced expectations of monetary easing and an increasingly bifurcated AI-trade, wherein pivotal suppliers like chipmakers have been favored at the expense of software and services industries seen as vulnerable to disruption.
Component shortages precipitated by data-center demand, namely memory, have become an important thematic headwind as enterprise AI cannibalizes production capacity.
Sources:
US stocks wobble after feeling both the upside and downside of a strong jobs report (AP)
Wall Street ends muted after strong jobs data nibbles at Fed rate cut bets (Reuters)
Treasuries Fall as Strong Jobs Curb Fed-Cut Bets: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
Real Estate Services Stocks Sink in Latest 'AI Scare Trade' (Bloomberg)
Wall Street's New Trade is Dumping Stocks in AI's Crosshairs (Bloomberg; 2/10)
New AI Worries End Dow Industrial's Three-Session Winning Streak (WSJ)
Around the World
Bangladesh holds first elections since toppling government in 2024
Voters in Bangladesh will elect all but one parliamentary representative in a test of the country's democratic institutions following the overthrow of the government in 2024. They will also decide on a referendum that would allow for reforming the country's constitution and legislature.
Sources:
NATO allies Greece and Turkey signal cooperative path forward
Turkey and Greece held discussions in Ankara seeking to ameliorate tensions regarding contested maritime and energy claims. The NATO allies have been at odds over disputed seas and regional defense initiatives.
Sources:
US sends military personnel to Nigeria to help confront insurgency
The Wall Street Journal reported that the US is sending advisory forces to help train Nigeria's military in its efforts to combat insurgents including Boko Haram.
Source:
Exclusive: U.S. to Send 200 Troops to Help Nigeria Fight Islamist Insurgents (WSJ; 2/10)
Congo leverages critical minerals supply to raise international financing
With relatively modest outstanding debt obligations and strategic mineral reserves including cobalt and copper, Congo's finance minister told Reuters that the country plans to tap international debt capital markets to facilitate investment.
Sources:
Odds & Ends
House rebuffs Trump by voting to rein in tariff authority
The House voted to end the economic emergency underpinning tariffs levied on Canadian exports. While unlikely to garner enough support to overcome a presidential veto, the resolution represents a challenge to President Trump's signature policy lever.
Sources:
House passes SAVE Act, triggers filibuster debate with midterm elections looming
The House also passed the SAVE Act on Wednesday over the objection of Democrats. The bill, which imposes voter ID requirements, must clear a 60-vote threshold in order to pass in the Senate.
Comment:
The high bar will invariably trigger GOP calls to lift filibuster restrictions to ease passage with control of Congress at stake in the fall.
Sources:
Administration to strike landmark EPA climate finding, sowing legal uncertainty
The Trump Administration is expected to announce that it will pull the Environmental Protection Agency's "endangerment finding" (related to greenhouse gas emissions) that has served as the basis for much of US climate law.
Despite the deregulatory intentions behind the move, emitters may no longer be shielded from "nuisance" lawsuits after the Supreme Court had ruled in 2011 that such claims fell under the purview of the EPA, largely on account of the "endangerment finding" and the rules that followed.
Sources:
Trump EPA set to repeal scientific finding that serves as basis for US climate change policy (AP; 2/10)
White House says Trump plans to rescind climate change finding key to auto rules (Reuters; 2/10)
Trump's repeal of climate rule opens a 'new front' for litigation (Reuters)
How Trump Is Scrapping the Legal Bedrock of Climate Rules (Bloomberg)
UK Supreme Court allows AI patents as H.M. Treasury plans digital bond issuance
The UK Supreme Court ruled that software requiring the use of hardware can be patented in the case of a developer of artificial neural networks. Interpretation of the ruling will be critical as all software requires hardware to run.
Separately, the UK Treasury has selected a blockchain platform for its digital gilt pilot, in which distributed ledger technology will be used for settlement.
Comment:
Legal clarity and financial integration will be key to the promotion and adoption of digital technologies.
Sources:
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