US and Iran to meet amid tensions as diplomacy eyed in Istanbul President Trump announces trade understanding with India in bid to pressure Russia US creates strategic rare earths reserve President Trump names Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve Metals' historic pullback met with dollar strength, risk asset calm Manufacturing PMI rebound belies underlying uncertainty Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates on inflation concerns Postponed Russia-Ukraine talks back on in Abu Dhab

Federal Reserve holds, signals extended pause US-Iran rhetoric escalates as Middle East urges calm Secretary Rubio testifies before Congress Gold vaults higher against dollar weakness while stocks flirt with records Big Tech's AI spending compounds chip shortages Census flags impact of reduced US immigration Consumer confidence declines in light of employment unease Bank of Canada, Banco Central do Brasil hold UK-China reset highlights global trade refactoring ASEAN ministeri

The Federal Reserve signaled that policy will remain in a holding pattern. Risks to employment and inflation appear to have lessened and the economic outlook has improved.

The Federal Reserve signaled that policy will remain in a holding pattern. Risks to employment and inflation appear to have lessened and the economic outlook has improved. A sharp deceleration in prices or rapid deterioration in labor markets could change the Fed's thinking and compel lowering rates sooner, but the FOMC believe they are "well-positioned" to consider the "extent and timing" of future policy adjustments. Given concerns surrounding the central bank's independenc

US-Ukraine-Russia talks in UAE aim to restore ceasefire momentum Iran's heated rhetoric confronts US build up of naval assets in Middle East New tariffs risk alienating major trading partners further The Fed will hold - but for how long and why? Gold climbs to another record amid stocks' advance Yen stems losses ahead of snap elections in Japan India and EU announce trade agreement Xi's purge targets China's top military official Final hostage recovery paves way for progress

'Framework of a future deal' on Greenland and Arctic security calms NATO fears for now Supreme Court skepticism likely to keep Fed firings on hold 'Board of Peace' expands beyond Gaza Risk asset recovery follows Davos détente as stocks rally Trump narrows list for Powell's replacement Long-term Japanese bonds stem selling after snap election plans ahead of Bank of Japan meeting Iran tensions simmer, US bolsters naval presence US to meet with Russia, Ukraine in search of elusi

US lawmakers visit Greenland as President Trump waves new tariff threat Back-channel diplomacy wards off US action in Iran where protests dissipate Canada treats with China on trade in sign of new world order US and Taiwan agree on tariff relief, chip investment Small-cap stocks outperform on week amid oil pullback Hassett loses front-runner status to succeed Powell as Fed Chair FOMC participants emphasize independence and signal January pause Administration explores addition

US withholds response to Iran's crackdown amid tension Denmark cites 'fundamental disagreement' over Greenland US data points to ebbing price pressures, resilient activity Central bankers reiterate importance of Fed independence Equities relent as technology, bank stocks drag; oil and silver retreat China posts record surplus on diversified trade flows Japan plans elections while boosting ties with South Korea, Philippines US announces second phase of peace agreement in Gaza

Facing probes, Powell defends Fed independence Iranian crackdown prompts US tariffs, military planning NATO's fate tied to Greenland's Stocks, metals climb to records as dollar weakens, oil rallies Credit card cap proposal weighs on banks Snap election prospects in Japan see weaker yen US steps up rhetoric against Russia at UN G7 plots rare earths strategy Germany inks agreements with India EU and China seek to resolve EV tariffs US and Taiwan negotiate tariffs, chip investme

Iranian protests draw government defiance, crackdown Russia uses hypersonic missile in Ukraine US pushes for oil investment in Venezuela amid uncertainty, quarantine White House reiterates Greenland goal Tepid job growth highlights precarious labor market MBS purchases ordered in bid to lower borrowing rates Stocks defy geopolitical risks to climb to new records, oil rallies No tariff ruling from Supreme Court EU moves forward on Mercosur trade agreement India and Australia t

US Eyes Indefinite Control of Venezuela's Oil Proposed Greenland Annexation Vexes Allies Security Assurances Take Shape in Ukraine Housing, Defense Sectors Upended by Trump Proclamations JOLTS Data Hint at Stagnant Labor Market CBO Lowers Population Growth Estimates China Restricts Dual-Use Exports to Japan South Korea Looks to China as Mediator with North Saudi Arabia, UAE Proxy Battle in Yemen EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT Headlines US Eyes Indefinite Control of Venezuela's Oil: T

We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays).

We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays).

We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays).

Transcript Hi everyone. I just posted a macro update about the December Fed meeting and I wanted to speak to a few key points. The first is that the Fed is signaling a pause. It does not intend to cut rates again in January. The statement stressed that they are “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to policy, which means that they are not planning another move at this time. Obviously, the narrative can change in a hurry as data comes in. Secondly, weak

The Fed signaled that the Committee will likely hold off on further rate cuts in January as they wait for more information to assess the state and trajectory of the US economy. A lot can change in the weeks and months ahead - policy is not predetermined.

Who says what's important? Perspective shapes what matters, and I can only offer my own.

We can learn a lot from failure. Previous publications tried to do too much and accomplished too little. Back to the drawing board!

Ideas to think about going into the decision and press conference.

Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve and the aftermath of the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Committee appears most likely to cut rates modestly (as markets and forecasters generally expect) and to signal a careful adjustment period without committing to a preset course, thus preserving the flexibility to pause or accelerate. That said, a September hold or even a larger initial cut are not entirely off the table. The Fed will balance co

Without committing to a preset course, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will consider adjusting policy at the September meeting after holding in July. Whether a majority will choose to ease and lower rates will depend on participants' views of labor markets and the inflation outlook at that time. The Fed has characterized employment as at or near maximum and inflation as somewhat above target, which together have called for a modestly restrictive stance (i.e., above-neutr

Research is a practiced craft. Thoughtful exploration and informed composition require more time and effort than a cursory internet search or forgettable chatbot prompt. The return is subtle but no less important: distilled context and analysis from a reliable and accountable source. Planning, application, and refinement are integral to this process. The same can be said for building a business.

The Federal Reserve's holding pattern appears set to continue indefinitely - or at least through the Summer. Perceptions of heightened outlook risks and deteriorating sentiment may or may not portend stagflation, but present circumstances are not yet so grave and pivotal facts may change. The economy's resilience has afforded the Fed time to await clearer indications out of Washington - particularly on tariffs - in order to assess implications for employment and inflation. Su

Next to the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference, the FOMC minutes that follow three weeks after the meeting are the best and most detailed insight you will get into the Fed's deliberations until transcripts are released in five years. Returning to the March 18-19 minutes (published April 9), the discussions emphasized elevated uncertainty and outlook risks on account of policy unknowns. Nevertheless, Fed staff and officials were aware of growth concerns complementing hig