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Digest | 29 May 2025
Equities registered modest gains amid quiet trading on Thursday. An appeals court upheld reciprocal tariffs - for now - and the US administration sought potential workarounds to reinforce President Trump's signature economic initiative. While US-China trade talks, US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and Russia-Ukraine dialogue stalled, a US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza gained momentum. Fed officials highlighted the importance of tariffs (or lack thereof) in determining t
May 304 min read
Digest | 28 May 2025
Notwithstanding a down day for the S&P, technology earnings upside and a seismic court ruling that invalidated emergency tariff orders lifted risk assets and the dollar after Wednesday's close. While Sino-American tensions simmered, Germany's public support for Ukraine drew attention to its increasingly prominent NATO role as Russia proposed another round of direct talks in Turkey and President Trump eschewed sanctions. Indirect nuclear bargaining continued between the US and
May 294 min read
Digest | 27 May 2025
A deescalation of trade hostilities bolstered equity indices on Tuesday as US markets reopened; the S&P 500 rallied 2.1%. Meanwhile, gold lingered near two-week highs and Treasury yields settled lower as longer-dated sovereign debt stabilized. Trade diplomacy took center stage and contributed to resurgent consumer confidence in the US as a ceasefire in Ukraine remained out of reach. With the Senate deliberating changes to budget legislation passed by the House, major technolo
May 284 min read
Digest | 22 May 2025
A modest equity retreat accompanied a global bond selloff on Thursday. House passage of tax and spending legislation amplified deficit concerns that have lifted 30-year yields above 5% and pivoted attention toward the Senate. A G7 finance communique highlighted areas of diplomatic agreement with key trade talks scheduled on Friday along with a mediated discussion in Rome between the US and Iran. The Supreme Court appeared prepared to carve out special protections for the Fede
May 232 min read
Digest | 21 May 2025
Equities languished as fickle demand for longer-dated US Treasuries invoked debt sustainability concerns with House budget legislation set to materially increase federal deficits. The dollar plumbed two week lows against the yen, bitcoin registered an all-time high, and oil retreated in the face of further output hikes. Signs of progress on US trade negotiations have been sparse. The Russia-Ukraine conflict appears entrenched. On Thursday, preliminary PMIs for May will shed l
May 223 min read
Digest | 20 May 2025
US equities' week-long ascent relented on Tuesday with Treasury rates little changed; Israel-Iran headlines lifted oil. President Trump's push to see tax legislation through the House brought the GOP closer to an agreement. Regional economic and military alliances continued to take shape with the G7 finance ministerial now underway. A parade of Federal Reserve officials continue to call for more time to assess policy ramifications, likely delaying the prospect of monetary eas
May 213 min read
Digest | 19 May 2025
Quiet trading followed on Monday in the wake of Friday's US debt downgrade, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and budget deliberations on Capitol Hill. A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire appeared no closer after a Trump-Putin call as trade negotiations proceeded with a limited roster of countries. European elections brought mixed blessings for the bloc while the EU and UK marked a diplomatic reset. Federal court rulings brought agency independence into question while Federal Reserve
May 205 min read
Digest | 15 May 2025
The S&P 500 scratched a fourth straight gain on Thursday in the absence of overtly risk-negative headlines. Softer retail sales and wholesale price data contrasted with inflationary warnings from retailer earnings and Federal Reserve officials. Crude declined in tandem with signals of progress on a US-Iran nuclear accord. Russia and Ukraine will conduct their first direct talks since 2022 on Friday in Turkey. The Supreme Court appeared poised to uphold the 14th Amendment, but
May 164 min read
Digest | 14 May 2025
Major stock indices drifted on Wednesday while the technology sector outperformed. Crude oil prices retreated and the dollar weakened. President Trump's diplomatic overtures in the Middle East stood in contrast to uncertain negotiations vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine as NATO ministers met in Turkey. The House GOP navigated marathon committee sessions in its aim to advance budget legislation by Memorial Day. Thursday will bring retail sales and wholesale price data for April, ea
May 152 min read
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