We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays). Your feedback is very welcome! EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT Headlines China Surrounds Taiwan: In a second day of live-fire military drills that continued into Tuesday, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) encircled Taiwan. Dubbed "Justice Mission 2025", the large-scale operation simulated a blockade of the island and has involved naval and aerial forces

We are reintroducing the Datum Research Recap, which will be published on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays (excluding holidays). Your feedback is very welcome! EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT Headlines Ukraine Peace Proposal: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will meet with President Trump in Florida on Sunday to discuss key parameters of a 20-point peace proposal to end the war with Russia. The talks may cover how to handle de facto concessions of territory, foreign security guarantees,

https://vimeo.com/1154944364/b7350ef1e9?fl=ip&fe=ec Transcript Hi everyone. I just posted a macro update about the December Fed meeting and I wanted to speak to a few key points. The first is that the Fed is signaling a pause. It does not intend to cut rates again in January. The statement stressed that they are “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to policy, which means that they are not planning another move at this time. Obviously, the narrative ca

The Fed signaled that the Committee will likely hold off on further rate cuts in January as they wait for more information to assess the state and trajectory of the US economy. A lot can change in the weeks and months ahead - policy is not predetermined. 21 DEC 2025 EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT | Key Takeaways | FOMC Statement | Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) | Prepared Remarks | Press Conference Key Takeaways The Fed intends to pause its rate adjustments until it has a bett

Who says what's important? Perspective shapes what matters, and I can only offer my own. 18 DEC 2025 I bring experience in macroeconomics, financial markets, and geopolitical risk, all of which influence interest rates. That's a lot of important information to process. My objective is to accurately distill what I learn in order to help you. The Recap is meant to be a quick, useful starting point for select topics that might influence macro markets - think interest rates, fore

We can learn a lot from failure. Previous publications tried to do too much and accomplished too little. Back to the drawing board! 17 DEC 2025 Working in investment banking research, I structured a daily markets commentary for a global audience that included contributions from colleagues around the world. This produced a comprehensive report that served as a reference for notable events in interest rates, foreign exchange, and emerging markets. The commentary I led needed to

Ideas to think about going into the decision and press conference.

Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve and the aftermath of the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Committee appears most likely to cut rates modestly (as markets and forecasters generally expect) and to signal a careful adjustment period without committing to a preset course, thus preserving the flexibility to pause or accelerate. That said, a September hold or even a larger initial cut are not entirely off the table. The Fed will balance co

Without committing to a preset course, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will consider adjusting policy at the September meeting after holding in July. Whether a majority will choose to ease and lower rates will depend on participants' views of labor markets and the inflation outlook at that time. The Fed has characterized employment as at or near maximum and inflation as somewhat above target, which together have called for a modestly restrictive stance (i.e., above-neutr