https://vimeo.com/1154944364/b7350ef1e9?fl=ip&fe=ec Transcript Hi everyone. I just posted a macro update about the December Fed meeting and I wanted to speak to a few key points. The first is that the Fed is signaling a pause. It does not intend to cut rates again in January. The statement stressed that they are “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to policy, which means that they are not planning another move at this time. Obviously, the narrative ca

The Fed signaled that the Committee will likely hold off on further rate cuts in January as they wait for more information to assess the state and trajectory of the US economy. A lot can change in the weeks and months ahead - policy is not predetermined. 21 DEC 2025 EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT | Key Takeaways | FOMC Statement | Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) | Prepared Remarks | Press Conference Key Takeaways The Fed intends to pause its rate adjustments until it has a bett

Who says what's important? Perspective shapes what matters, and I can only offer my own. 18 DEC 2025 I bring experience in macroeconomics, financial markets, and geopolitical risk, all of which influence interest rates. That's a lot of important information to process. My objective is to accurately distill what I learn in order to help you. The Recap is meant to be a quick, useful starting point for select topics that might influence macro markets - think interest rates, fore

We can learn a lot from failure. Previous publications tried to do too much and accomplished too little. Back to the drawing board! 17 DEC 2025 Working in investment banking research, I structured a daily markets commentary for a global audience that included contributions from colleagues around the world. This produced a comprehensive report that served as a reference for notable events in interest rates, foreign exchange, and emerging markets. The commentary I led needed to

Ideas to think about going into the decision and press conference. 17 SEP 2025 EDWARD VON DER SCHMIDT Cut and What? The Federal Open Market Committee will set a new course for monetary policy today in Washington. Chair Powell will open day two of the September FOMC with a proposal and lead a policy discussion among participants - the Governors and regional Bank Presidents of the Federal Reserve System. After Tuesday's staff and manager presentations, scenario analysis, and a

Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve and the aftermath of the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Committee appears most likely to cut rates modestly (as markets and forecasters generally expect) and to signal a careful adjustment period without committing to a preset course, thus preserving the flexibility to pause or accelerate. That said, a September hold or even a larger initial cut are not entirely off the table. The Fed will balance co

Without committing to a preset course, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will consider adjusting policy at the September meeting after holding in July. Whether a majority will choose to ease and lower rates will depend on participants' views of labor markets and the inflation outlook at that time. The Fed has characterized employment as at or near maximum and inflation as somewhat above target, which together have called for a modestly restrictive stance (i.e., above-neutr

Research is a practiced craft. Thoughtful exploration and informed composition require more time and effort than a cursory internet search or forgettable chatbot prompt. The return is subtle but no less important: distilled context and analysis from a reliable and accountable source. Planning, application, and refinement are integral to this process. The same can be said for building a business. 27 JUN 2025 I started Datum Research with an admittedly ambitious goal: credibly

The Federal Reserve's holding pattern appears set to continue indefinitely - or at least through the Summer. Perceptions of heightened outlook risks and deteriorating sentiment may or may not portend stagflation, but present circumstances are not yet so grave and pivotal facts may change. The economy's resilience has afforded the Fed time to await clearer indications out of Washington - particularly on tariffs - in order to assess implications for employment and inflation. Su